Match Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves August 20, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 1.5 at 1.44 — +9.7% better than the market.

With limited recent form data, this La Liga opener between Rayo Vallecano and Alaves hints at a cautious encounter. The home side may enjoy a slight edge from familiar surroundings, while both teams could prioritize defensive solidity early in the season. Market odds suggest a moderate tempo with under 2.5 goals likely, pointing to a compact match where set-piece opportunities might be decisive.

Home comfort may boost Rayo's pressing intensity
Alaves likely to maintain a structured defensive block
Early season nerves could limit attacking risks

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 1.5

Over 1.5 @ 1.44 ✓ Cashed

AI 76% Implied 69% +0.44u

+44%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

RAY 4-3-3 · ALA 4-4-2

RAY · 4-3-3 4-4-2 · ALA

21 Pérez

Subs used · RAY

17'

Nteka ↑ ·

Palazon ↓

55'

Valentin ↑ ·

Fernandez ↓

55'

Garcia ↑ ·

Perez ↓

60'

Cardenas ↑ ·

Batalla ↓

Subs used · ALA

62'

Diaz ↑ ·

Boye ↓

62'

Suarez ↑ ·

Rodriguez ↓

70'

Yusi ↑ ·

Otto ↓

80'

Valentini ↑ ·

Koski ↓

80'

Alena ↑ ·

Perez ↓

📊 Statistics

RAY 1 – 1 ALA

48%

Possession (%)

52%

0.43

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.92

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 1 – 1

R. Nteka ↓ · I. Palazon ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

17'

45+2'

▮

N. Tenaglia

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

S. Camello

Assist · J. de Frutos · 1–0

⚽

48'

O. Valentin ↓ · P. Fernandez ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

55'

A. Garcia ↓ · F. Perez ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

55'

D. Cardenas ↓ · A. Batalla ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

60'

62'

⇄

M. Diaz ↓ · L. Boye ↑

Substitution 1

62'

⇄

D. Suarez ↓ · M. Rodriguez ↑

Substitution 2

70'

⇄

Yusi ↓ · Jonny Otto ↑

Substitution 3

S. Camello

Yellow Card

▮

73'

80'

⇄

N. Valentini ↓ · V. Koski ↑

Substitution 4

80'

⇄

C. Alena ↓ · A. Perez ↑

Substitution 5

84'

⚽

M. Diaz

1–1

90+2'

▮

N. Valentini

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Rayo Vallecano and Alaves drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.92 to 0.43. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 8, 3 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: S. Camello (48'), M. Diaz (84').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.41 units (Brier 0.164).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 1.5	2.46	2.72	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.70	1.62	56%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
BTTS No	1.62	1.75	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.21	2.00	42%	Cashed	+1.21	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.61	2.50	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.10	2.27	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.60	2.44	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.44	1.44	76%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.57	1.57	49%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Draw	3.13	3.09	28%	Cashed	+2.13	Cashed
Away Win	3.75	3.55	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.53	1.59	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.20	1.20	65%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Over 3.5	5.40	4.50	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.07	1.07	86%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Under 0.5	6.70	7.19	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.27	1.29	72%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.41u	−20% ROI