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Home › Spain › La Liga › Atletico Madrid — Villarreal

Predictions by Market: Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Home · last 5 L W W W W
Kick-off
Sun 23 Aug · 15:00
2:2
Full-time
Villarreal
Villarreal
L L W W L Away · last 5
Referee A. Hernandez

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · ATM
47%
Best 1.83
Draw
25%
Best 3.98
Away Win · VIL
28%
Best 4.62
Value pick
Away Win
@ 4.00
Fair odds
3.55
book 4.00 · +12.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 28% · EV +12.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (47%), but Away Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 46.7%
Odds 1.89
Show model details
Implied probability 52.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 28.2%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 25.1%
Odds 3.68
Show model details
Implied probability 27.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 6 markets
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 49.6%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 50.4%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 30%
Odds 3.12
Show model details
Implied probability 32.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5 Best in group
Probability 73.6%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 72.1%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 25.6%
Odds 3.66
Show model details
Implied probability 27.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 53.6%
Odds 1.74
Show model details
Implied probability 57.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS No
Probability 46.4%
Odds 2.01
Show model details
Implied probability 49.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 28.2%
Odds 3.08
Show model details
Implied probability 32.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 46.7%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 53.3%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 71.8%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Away Win
ATM – VIL @ 4.00
+12.7%
Edge
Forecast →