Aston Villa vs Brentford 2:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.23 — +14.8% better than the market.

Brentford enter Villa Park with a clear quality edge and a stronger recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Aston Villa's defensive solidity may be tested by Brentford's sharper attack, but Villa's home momentum and compact block could keep the game tight. The pace hints at a moderately open match, yet the goal environment leans towards fewer goals.

Brentford's offensive threat vs Villa's defense
Villa's home resilience balancing quality gap
Moderate tempo favoring a controlled game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 2.23 ✗ Lost

AI 52% Implied 45% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

AST 4-2-3-1 · BRE 4-2-3-1

AST · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · BRE

11 Jackson ⚽

Subs used · AST

45'

Wan-Bissaka ↑ ·

Ruggeri ↓

64'

Mbaye ↑ ·

Buendía ↓

86'

Barkley ↑ ·

Gomes ↓

86'

Rocha ↑ ·

Manzambi ↓

Subs used · BRE

45'

Hickey ↑ ·

Schuster ↓

52'

Sangare ↑ ·

Schade ↓

67'

Ouattara ↑ ·

Lewis-Potter ↓

67'

Jensen ↑ ·

Yarmoliuk ↓

85'

Wilson ↑ ·

Anthony ↓

Statistics

AST 2 – 2 BRE

52%

Possession (%)

48%

1.80

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.27

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

21 · 2 – 2

10'

⚽

Yehor Yarmoliuk

0–1

Nicolas Jackson

1–1

⚽

12'

35'

▮

Igor Thiago

Yellow Card

Aaron Wan-Bissaka ↓ · Matteo Ruggeri ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

45'

⇄

Aaron Hickey ↓ · Jannik Schuster ↑

Substitution 1

Emiliano Buendía

Yellow Card

▮

45+3'

Half-time · 1 – 1

52'

⇄

Mamadou Sangare ↓ · Kevin Schade ↑

Substitution 2

Ibrahim Mbaye ↓ · Emiliano Buendía ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

64'

67'

⇄

Dango Ouattara ↓ · Keane Lewis-Potter ↑

Substitution 3

67'

⇄

Mathias Jensen ↓ · Yehor Yarmoliuk ↑

Substitution 4

Matty Cash

Yellow Card

▮

72'

75'

▮

Vitaly Janelt

Yellow Card

John McGinn

Assist · Johan Manzambi · 2–1

⚽

77'

79'

⚽

Kristoffer Ajer

Assist · Jaidon Anthony · 2–2

82'

▮

Michael Kayode

Yellow Card

84'

▮

Kristoffer Ajer

Yellow Card

85'

⇄

Callum Wilson ↓ · Jaidon Anthony ↑

Substitution 5

Ross Barkley ↓ · João Gomes ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

86'

Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha ↓ · Johan Manzambi ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

86'

90+5'

▮

Callum Wilson

Yellow Card

90+5'

▮

K. Andrews

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Aston Villa and Brentford drew 2–2. At half-time it was 1–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.80 to 1.27. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 14, 7 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Yehor Yarmoliuk (10'), Nicolas Jackson (12'), John McGinn (77'), Kristoffer Ajer (79').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -1.27 units (Brier 0.261).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.55	2.45	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.10	2.25	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.23	2.39	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.91	1.84	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.73	1.67	45%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Home Win	2.61	2.82	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.74	2.62	24%	Cashed	+1.74	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.00	2.06	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.42	1.45	76%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.47	1.42	71%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.00	4.50	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.50	1.52	54%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.59	1.52	48%	Cashed	+0.59	Cashed
Draw	3.50	3.50	25%	Cashed	+2.50	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.20	1.18	69%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−1.27u	−8% ROI

Aston Villa vs Brentford 2:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled