Match Paraguay vs France July 4, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.25 — +13.3% better than the market.

France enters this World Cup qualifier with clear offensive momentum, boasting a strong scoring record and high shot volume compared to Paraguay's more conservative approach. Paraguay's solid defensive shape and clean sheet frequency suggest a compact block that could frustrate France's attacking rhythm. The neutral venue levels the playing field, but France's sharper form and pressing edge hint at a likely control of the match tempo.

France's potent attack faces a disciplined Paraguayan defense.
Paraguay's home momentum is steady but less explosive.
Expect a tactical battle with France pressing high and Paraguay compact.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.25 ✓ Cashed

AI 50% Implied 44% +1.25u

+125%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

PAR 5-4-1 · FRA 4-2-3-1

PAR · 5-4-1 4-2-3-1 · FRA

19 Enciso

Subs used · PAR

58'

Canale ↑ ·

Alderete ↓

61'

Caballero ↑ ·

Enciso ↓

71'

Mauricio ↑ ·

Gomez ↓

71'

Avalos ↑ ·

Almiron ↓

Subs used · FRA

61'

Doue ↑ ·

Barcola ↓

84'

Cherki ↑ ·

Dembele ↓

📊 Statistics

PAR 0 – 1 FRA

24%

Possession (%)

76%

0.15

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.36

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

54%

Pass Accuracy (%)

90%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

10 · 0 – 1

19'

▮

B. Barcola

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

J. Canale ↓ · O. Alderete ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

58'

G. Caballero ↓ · J. Enciso ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

61'

⇄

D. Doue ↓ · B. Barcola ↑

Substitution 1

70'

⚽

K. Mbappe (P)

Penalty · 0–1

Mauricio ↓ · G. Gomez ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

71'

G. Avalos ↓ · M. Almiron ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

71'

81'

▮

M. Kone

Yellow Card

84'

⇄

R. Cherki ↓ · O. Dembele ↑

Substitution 2

90+7'

▮

M. Olise

Yellow Card

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

France won 1–0 away at Paraguay. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 76% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 90% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.36 to 0.15. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 5, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 12 to 2. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: K. Mbappe (70').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -2.26 units (Brier 0.153).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.25	2.30	50%	Cashed	+1.25	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.56	2.38	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.65	1.62	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.63	2.62	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	17.00	15.87	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	12.50	12.05	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	5.00	4.74	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.33	4.50	27%	Cashed	+3.33	Cashed
Draw	7.00	6.76	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.44	1.50	72%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
BTTS No	1.49	1.53	65%	Cashed	+0.49	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.03	1.02	87%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Away Win	1.17	1.18	71%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.03	1.03	71%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.18	1.18	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−2.26u	−15% ROI