Match Portugal vs Croatia July 2, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.95 — +5.6% better than the market.

Portugal vs Croatia Preview

This World Cup clash promises a tactical battle between two in-form sides. Portugal shows a slight home momentum with solid attacking output and a decent defensive record, while Croatia impresses with a compact backline and high clean sheet rate. Both teams create chances at a similar rate, suggesting a balanced contest with potential for tight moments.

Portugal's attacking edge meets Croatia's disciplined defense
Both sides boast strong recent form and goal-scoring ability
Neutral venue may level the playing field, favoring tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 1.95 ✗ Lost

AI 54% Implied 51% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

POR 4-2-3-1 · CRO 4-2-3-1

POR · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · CRO

7 Ronaldo ⚽

Subs used · POR

62'

Silva ↑ ·

Vitinha ↓

63'

Conceicao ↑ ·

Neto ↓

63'

Semedo ↑ ·

Fernandes ↓

63'

Ramos ↑ ·

Cancelo ↓

81'

Neves ↑ ·

Ronaldo ↓

Subs used · CRO

46'

Matanovic ↑ ·

Budimir ↓

68'

Pasalic ↑ ·

Baturina ↓

90+2'

Gvardiol ↑ ·

Vlasic ↓

90+6'

Kramaric ↑ ·

Kovacic ↓

📊 Statistics

POR 2 – 1 CRO

61%

Possession (%)

39%

2.18

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.34

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

91%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 2 – 1

R. Dias

Yellow Card

▮

17'

Half-time · 0 – 0

46'

⇄

I. Matanovic ↓ · A. Budimir ↑

Substitution 1

53'

⚽

I. Perisic

0–1

59'

▮

L. Modric

Yellow Card

B. Silva ↓ · Vitinha ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

62'

F. Conceicao ↓ · P. Neto ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

63'

N. Semedo ↓ · B. Fernandes ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

63'

G. Ramos ↓ · J. Cancelo ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

63'

C. Ronaldo (P)

Penalty · 1–1

⚽

68'

⇄

M. Pasalic ↓ · M. Baturina ↑

Substitution 2

R. Neves ↓ · C. Ronaldo ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

81'

90+2'

⇄

J. Gvardiol ↓ · N. Vlasic ↑

Substitution 3

G. Ramos

Assist · R. Leao · 2–1

⚽

90+4'

90+6'

⇄

A. Kramaric ↓ · M. Kovacic ↑

Substitution 4

90+8'

▮

I. Perisic

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Portugal beat Croatia 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.18 to 1.34. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 5. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: I. Perisic (53'), C. Ronaldo (68'), G. Ramos (90+4').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.45 units (Brier 0.143).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	1.95	2.05	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.95	2.15	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.00	1.73	45%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.75	2.10	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.67	1.67	54%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.80	1.72	46%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.40	4.20	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.19	1.16	77%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
Away Win	4.50	5.38	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	1.02	89%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.33	1.43	74%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.25	1.21	72%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.10	2.75	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.30	3.73	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.00	12.35	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.88	3.88	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.26	1.24	52%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.45u	−32% ROI