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Home › World › UEFA Nations League › Portugal — Norway

Portugal vs Norway 2:1: Match Review & Stats

World   /   UEFA Nations League Value pick inside
Portugal
Portugal
Home · last 5 W W W W
Kick-off
Sun 04 Oct · 18:45
2:1
Full-time
Norway
Norway
W L L L Away · last 5
Estádio do Dragão · Porto Referee Maurizio Mariani
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 48% · book 2.45 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 42% · book 2.46 ✗
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 45% · book 2.18 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
Possession
59% – 41%
AI accuracy
4 / 9
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.46 — +4.2% better than the market.

Portugal arrives with strong home momentum, unbeaten in recent matches and showing a solid points-per-game edge over Norway. Their attacking rhythm and home comfort could press Norway’s defense, which has shown some vulnerability. The odds suggest a moderately open game, with a slight lean towards fewer goals, hinting at a tactical battle rather than a goal fest.

  • Portugal’s home form and attacking pressure
  • Norway’s resilience but defensive concerns
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.46 ✗ Lost
AI 42% Implied 41% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Statistics

POR 2 – 1 NOR
59%
Possession (%)
41%
20
Total Shots
9
7
Shots on Target
3
8
Shots off Target
4
11
Shots Inside Box
6
6
Corner Kicks
4
2
Offsides
2
8
Fouls
7
2
Yellow Cards
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match recap

Portugal beat Norway 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 59% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 9, 7 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 9 graded markets, 4 landed and 5 missed, for a net -3.00 units (Brier 0.154).

Bet recap · markets settled

9 · 4 W · 5 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 2.45 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.46 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.18 — 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.73 — 55% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.24 — 77% Cashed +0.24 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.50 — 58% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.53 — 52% Cashed +0.53 Cashed
Away Win 4.33 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.55 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 9 markets @ 1u each — — — 4 W · 5 L −3.00u −33% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
POR – NOR @ 2.46
+4.2%
Edge
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