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Home World World Cup Netherlands — Morocco

Preview Netherlands vs Morocco June 30, 2026

World   /   World Cup Value pick inside
Netherlands
Netherlands
Home · last 5 D W W
Kick-off
Tue 30 Jun · 01:00
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Morocco
Morocco
D W W Away · last 5
Referee W. Sampaio
Home Win · NET
45%
Best 2.20
Draw
29%
Best 3.30
Away Win · MAR
27%
Best 3.90

🧠 Model verdict

Model leans toward both teams to score — 58% probability.

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

AI preview · 90 sec read

Netherlands enter this World Cup clash with strong home momentum, boasting a solid defensive record and clinical finishing in qualifiers. Their high pressing and set-piece threat contrast with Morocco's disciplined defense and efficient counterattacks. Both sides show attacking intent, suggesting a lively game with goals likely.

  • Netherlands' compact block and quick transitions
  • Morocco's resilience and clean sheet tendency
  • Balanced pace hinting at open play and scoring chances

Most likely outcomes

What the model rates as most likely in each market.

Market Prob. % Pred.
1X2 45% Netherlands win
Over/Under 2.5 54% Over 2.5
BTTS 58% Yes
Double Chance 73% 1X
  • 1X2 Netherlands win 45%
  • Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54%
  • BTTS Yes 58%
  • Double Chance 1X 73%
Open betting analysis

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers
Home Win Draw Away Win
See full odds

Recent form

Last 5 matches · all competitions
Netherlands
W/D/L 4-1-0
Goals (for / against) 16 / 5
Avg goals / match 4.2
Scored in 5/5
Clean sheets 1/5
Both teams scored 4/5
Over 2.5 5/5
Home (W-D-L) 3-1-0
Away (W-D-L) 1-0-0
xG (for / against) 1.63 / 0.76
Morocco
W/D/L 3-2-0
Goals (for / against) 8 / 4
Avg goals / match 2.4
Scored in 5/5
Clean sheets 2/5
Both teams scored 3/5
Over 2.5 1/5
Home (W-D-L) 2-1-0
Away (W-D-L) 1-1-0
xG (for / against) 1.83 / 0.77

Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match
3.33
Goals Scored
2
1.33
Goals Conceded
1
1.09
Expected Goals (xG)
1.83
6.67
Shots on Target
5
4.33
Corners
4.67
61
Possession (%)
58.33
Efficiency index
Adjusted index
Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

🌍 Qualification form

Statistics based on recent World Cup qualification matches.
Netherlands High data confidence
W D W W W
Matches8
Goals for / against27 / 4
Goals for / match3.38
Goals against / match0.50
Clean sheets62.5%
Both teams to score37.5%
Over 1.5 goals100.0%
Over 2.5 goals62.5%
xG for / match2.36
xG against / match0.23
Avg corners6.5
Avg shots17.3
Avg shots on target6.5
Sources: UEFA World Cup Qualification
Morocco Medium data confidence
W W W W W
Matches8
Goals for / against22 / 2
Goals for / match2.75
Goals against / match0.25
Clean sheets75.0%
Both teams to score25.0%
Over 1.5 goals87.5%
Over 2.5 goals50.0%
Avg corners7.6
Avg shots14.8
Avg shots on target5.8
Sources: CAF World Cup Qualification

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date
71
OFF · home
98
56
DEF · home
75
92
OFF · away
58
58
DEF · away
67
Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

🎯 Scenario insights

Netherlands wins when scoring first
67%
Morocco wins when scoring first
67%
Netherlands BTTS rate · last 10
70%
Morocco BTTS rate · last 10
40%
Netherlands Over 2.5 · last 10
80%
Morocco Over 2.5 · last 10
40%
Netherlands comeback rate · last 10
Morocco comeback rate · last 10

🔥 Goal timing

Netherlands · last 2 at home

0–15 14%
16–30 14%
31–45 0%
46–60 43%
61–75 14%
76–90 14%

Morocco · last 2 away

0–15 50%
16–30 50%
31–45 0%
46–60 0%
61–75 0%
76–90 0%
Balanced — goals spread evenly across the match.

Top scorers

B. Brobbey
NET · Attacker
3 G · 1.68 g/90
C. Summerville
NET · Attacker
2 G · 1.35 g/90
I. Saibari
MAR · Attacker
3 G · 1.11 g/90
Brahim Díaz
MAR · Midfielder
0 G