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Prognosist
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Home World World Cup Norway — France

Match Norway vs France June 26, 2026 — Result and Stats

World   /   World Cup Value pick inside
Norway
Norway
Home · last 5 W L W W L
Kick-off
Fri 26 Jun · 19:00
1:4
Full-time
France
France
W W W W W Away · last 5
Gillette Stadium · Boston Referee Michael Oliver, England
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 67% · book 1.47
Miss
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 49% · book 2.23
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 58% · book 1.57
Total goals
5
1 · 4
xG (open play)
1.69 – 1.18
Δ +0.51
Possession
43% – 57%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.73 — +8.2% better than the market.

Norway arrives with impressive home momentum, boasting a perfect recent run and a potent attack that averages over four goals per match in qualifiers. Their solid defense, conceding less than one goal per game, complements their high pressing style. France counters with a balanced squad, showing resilience and consistent scoring, though their defense is slightly more vulnerable. Expect an open contest with both sides pushing forward, likely producing multiple goals.

  • Norway's dominant home form and clinical finishing
  • France's balanced attack and occasional defensive lapses
  • High tempo suggested by goal-scoring trends

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5
Over 2.5 @ 1.73
AI 63% Implied 58% Value
+8.2%
Expected value

Lineups

NOR 4-2-3-1 · FRA 4-2-3-1
Subs used · NOR
46' Pedersen ↑ · Bjorkan
46' Thorsby ↑ · Thorstvedt
66' Langas ↑ · Falchener
83' Nusa ↑ · Bobb
83' Hauge ↑ · Schjelderup
Subs used · FRA
65' Cherki ↑ · Olise
65' Barcola ↑ · Dembele
76' Konate ↑ · Upamecano
87' Gusto ↑ · Kounde
87' Mateta ↑ · Mbappe

📊 Statistics

NOR 14 FRA
43%
Possession (%)
57%
1.69
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.18
10
Total Shots
17
4
Shots on Target
8
3
Shots off Target
6
6
Shots Inside Box
9
4
Corner Kicks
5
1
Offsides
2
9
Fouls
10
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
1
Yellow Cards
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

18 · 1 – 4
7'
O. Dembele
Assist · K. Mbappe · 0–1
P. Berg
Yellow Card
10'
20'
O. Dembele
Assist · K. Mbappe · 0–2
T. Aasgaard
Assist · A. Schjelderup · 1–2
21'
32'
O. Dembele
Assist · A. Tchouameni · 1–3
Half-time · 1 – 3
M. Pedersen ↓ · F. Bjorkan ↑
Substitution 1
46'
M. Thorsby ↓ · K. Thorstvedt ↑
Substitution 2
46'
J. Larsen (P)
Penalty · Assist · J. Larsen · 2–3
50'
65'
R. Cherki ↓ · M. Olise ↑
Substitution 1
65'
B. Barcola ↓ · O. Dembele ↑
Substitution 2
S. Langas ↓ · H. Falchener ↑
Substitution 3
66'
74'
A. Tchouameni
Yellow Card
76'
I. Konate ↓ · D. Upamecano ↑
Substitution 3
A. Nusa ↓ · O. Bobb ↑
Substitution 4
83'
J. Hauge ↓ · A. Schjelderup ↑
Substitution 5
83'
87'
M. Gusto ↓ · J. Kounde ↑
Substitution 4
87'
J. Mateta ↓ · K. Mbappe ↑
Substitution 5
90+4'
D. Doue
Assist · B. Barcola · 2–4
Full-time · 1 – 4

Match recap

France won 4–1 away at Norway. At half-time it was 1–3.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.69 to 1.18. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 10, 8 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.18 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: O. Dembele (7'), O. Dembele (20'), T. Aasgaard (21'), O. Dembele (32'), D. Doue (90+4').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.45 units (Brier 0.135).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 1.47 1.48 67% Cashed +0.47 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 2.23 2.30 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.57 1.59 58% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
BTTS No 2.09 2.26 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 1.61 1.59 51% Cashed +0.61 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.62 2.62 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.30 2.30 46% Cashed +1.30 Cashed
Home Win 4.30 4.88 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 3.77 3.65 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.21 1.18 70% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.11 1.11 85% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.03 1.02 95% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Draw 3.85 4.74 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.50 1.62 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 5.35 5.29 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 12.10 17.54 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.25 1.26 51% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −5.45u −32% ROI

Community forecasts

What other tipsters predicted · 1 in the sample
Value pick of the night · Over 2.5
NOR – FRA @ 1.73
+8.2%
Edge
Forecast →