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Home World World Cup Tunisia — Netherlands

Match Tunisia vs Netherlands June 25, 2026 — Result and Stats

World   /   World Cup Value pick inside
Tunisia
Tunisia
Home · last 5 L L L
Kick-off
Thu 25 Jun · 23:00
1:3
Full-time
Netherlands
Netherlands
D W W D Away · last 5
Referee K. I. Garcia Mendoza
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 62% · book 1.86
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 41% · book 3.00
Hit
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 33% · book 2.20
Total goals
4
1 · 3
Possession
28% – 72%
AI accuracy
7 / 16
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.67 — +11.6% better than the market.

Tunisia arrives with perfect recent form and an impressive defensive record, having kept clean sheets in all their qualification matches. Their compact backline and disciplined approach could frustrate the Netherlands, who boast a potent attack averaging over three goals per game but have conceded occasionally. The Dutch's high pressing and creative edge may test Tunisia's resilience, but the match hints at a tactical battle with limited goals.

  • Tunisia's defensive solidity and clean sheets
  • Netherlands' attacking firepower and pressing style
  • Neutral venue may favor tactical caution and fewer risks

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.67
AI 67% Implied 60% Value
+11.6%
Expected value

Lineups

TUN 4-2-3-1 · NET 4-3-3
Subs used · TUN
67' Mahmoud ↑ · Khedira
68' Achouri ↑ · Slimane
68' Ouanes ↑ · Hamida
75' Chaouat ↑ · Gharbi
90' Tounekti ↑ · Mastouri
Subs used · NET
72' Koopmeiners ↑ · Jong
72' Kluivert ↑ · Reijnders
72' Summerville ↑ · Malen
77' Depay ↑ · Brobbey
84' Lang ↑ · Gakpo

📊 Statistics

TUN 13 NET
28%
Possession (%)
72%
10
Total Shots
20
4
Shots on Target
7
5
Shots off Target
8
4
Corner Kicks
6
2
Offsides
1
11
Fouls
10
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

14 · 1 – 3
3'
Ellyes Skhiri
Own goal · 0–1
7'
Brian Brobbey
Assist · Virgil van Dijk · 0–2
Half-time · 0 – 2
Hazem Mastouri
Assist · Hannibal Mejbri · 1–2
54'
62'
Jan Paul van Hecke
Assist · Tijjani Reijnders · 1–3
Mohamed Hadj Mahmoud ↓ · Rani Khedira ↑
Substitution 1
67'
Elias Achouri ↓ · Anis Ben Slimane ↑
Substitution 2
68'
Mortadha Ben Ouanes ↓ · Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida ↑
Substitution 3
68'
72'
Teun Koopmeiners ↓ · Frenkie de Jong ↑
Substitution 1
72'
Justin Kluivert ↓ · Tijjani Reijnders ↑
Substitution 2
72'
Crysencio Summerville ↓ · Donyell Malen ↑
Substitution 3
Firas Chaouat ↓ · Ismael Gharbi ↑
Substitution 4
75'
77'
Memphis Depay ↓ · Brian Brobbey ↑
Substitution 4
84'
Noa Lang ↓ · Cody Gakpo ↑
Substitution 5
Sebastian Tounekti ↓ · Hazem Mastouri ↑
Substitution 5
90'
Full-time · 1 – 3

Match recap

Netherlands won 3–1 away at Tunisia. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 72% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 10, 7 on target.

On the scoresheet: Ellyes Skhiri (3'), Brian Brobbey (7'), Hazem Mastouri (54'), Jan Paul van Hecke (62').

Model audit for this match: of 16 graded markets, 7 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.17 units (Brier 0.174).

Bet recap · markets settled

16 · 7 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.86 1.80 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 3.00 3.00 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.20 2.00 33% Cashed +1.20 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.87 2.53 24% Cashed +1.87 Cashed
Home Win 21.00 26.32 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.40 1.50 76% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 17.00 19.61 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 8.75 7.46 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 5.50 6.49 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 12.50 12.99 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 8.50 10.53 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 1.13 1.10 74% Cashed +0.13 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.06 1.02 74% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.44 1.37 54% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.02 1.01 86% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.11 1.08 73% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
Total · 16 markets @ 1u each 7 W · 9 L −5.17u −32% ROI

Community forecasts

What other tipsters predicted · 1 in the sample
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
TUN – NET @ 1.67
+11.6%
Edge
Forecast →