Match Sweden vs Tunisia June 15, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Sweden hosts Tunisia in a World Cup clash with contrasting recent forms. Sweden's defense has been leaky, conceding nearly two goals per qualifier match, while Tunisia boasts a perfect clean sheet record and strong attacking output. Tunisia's unbeaten momentum and defensive solidity could challenge Sweden's home efforts, who rely on a moderate attacking threat but have struggled to keep opponents quiet.

Sweden's home edge is tempered by defensive vulnerabilities.
Tunisia's compact block and counter-attacks pose a real threat.
Expect a cautious tempo with under 2.5 goals likely given defensive strengths.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

SWE 3-4-1-2 · TUN 4-2-3-1

SWE · 3-4-1-2 4-2-3-1 · TUN

9 Isak ⚽

Subs used · SWE

65'

Stroud ↑ ·

Gudmundsson ↓

65'

Bergvall ↑ ·

Nygren ↓

84'

Svanberg ↑ ·

Karlstrom ↓

90+1'

Elanga ↑ ·

Isak ↓

90+1'

Svensson ↑ ·

Bernhardsson ↓

Subs used · TUN

72'

Tounekti ↑ ·

Saad ↓

72'

Belhadj ↑ ·

Valery ↓

72'

Achouri ↑ ·

Skhiri ↓

83'

Gharbi ↑ ·

Khedira ↓

83'

Chaouat ↑ ·

Slimane ↓

📊 Statistics

SWE 5 – 1 TUN

49%

Possession (%)

51%

1.36

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.28

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 5 – 1

Y. Ayari

1–0

⚽

A. Isak

Assist · V. Gyokeres · 2–0

⚽

30'

43'

⚽

O. Rekik

Assist · H. Mejbri · 2–1

Half-time · 2 – 1

54'

▮

R. Khedira

Yellow Card

V. Gyokeres

Assist · A. Isak · 3–1

⚽

59'

E. Stroud ↓ · G. Gudmundsson ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

65'

L. Bergvall ↓ · B. Nygren ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

65'

72'

⇄

S. Tounekti ↓ · E. Saad ↑

Substitution 1

72'

⇄

M. Belhadj ↓ · Y. Valery ↑

Substitution 2

72'

⇄

E. Achouri ↓ · E. Skhiri ↑

Substitution 3

83'

⇄

I. Gharbi ↓ · R. Khedira ↑

Substitution 4

83'

⇄

F. Chaouat ↓ · A. Slimane ↑

Substitution 5

M. Svanberg ↓ · J. Karlstrom ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

84'

M. Svanberg

Assist · A. Isak · 4–1

⚽

84'

A. Elanga ↓ · A. Isak ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+1'

D. Svensson ↓ · A. Bernhardsson ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+1'

Y. Ayari

Assist · L. Bergvall · 5–1

⚽

90+6'

Full-time · 5 – 1

Match recap

Sweden beat Tunisia 5–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.36 to 0.28. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 6, 7 on target. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 5 from 1.36 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: Y. Ayari (7'), A. Isak (30'), O. Rekik (43'), V. Gyokeres (59'), M. Svanberg (84'), Y. Ayari (90+6').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.04 units (Brier 0.215).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.91	1.83	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.67	1.70	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.18	2.15	43%	Cashed	+1.18	Cashed
BTTS No	1.79	1.83	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.96	1.91	48%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
Home Win	1.86	1.88	48%	Cashed	+0.86	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.00	3.19	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.14	3.04	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.33	4.41	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.36	1.36	69%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.22	1.25	77%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.00	4.00	23%	Cashed	+3.00	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.04	1.07	89%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.00	8.47	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.50	3.40	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.20	1.21	74%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.36	1.38	48%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.04u	−12% ROI