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Home › World › World Cup › Netherlands — Japan

Netherlands vs Japan 2:2: Match Review & Stats

World   /   World Cup Value pick inside
Netherlands
Netherlands
Home · last 5 D W W D
Kick-off
Sun 14 Jun · 20:00
2:2
Full-time
Japan
Japan
D W D L Away · last 5
Referee Ismail Elfath, USA
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 54% · book 1.80 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 50% · book 1.88 ✗
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 50% · book 1.91 ✓
Total goals
4
2 · 2
xG (open play)
0.79 – 0.54
Δ +0.25
Possession
60% – 40%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 3.60 — +3.5% better than the market.

Netherlands enter this World Cup clash with strong home momentum, boasting a solid defensive record and a high scoring rate in qualifiers. Their compact block and efficient attack create a pressing edge against Japan, who also show resilience with a disciplined defense and quick transitions. The match hints at a balanced tempo with chances for both sides, but Netherlands' home edge and recent form suggest they may control the rhythm.

  • Netherlands' sturdy defense and prolific attack
  • Japan's disciplined backline and counter-attacks
  • Balanced pace with potential for tactical adjustments

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Away Win
Away Win @ 3.60 ✗ Lost
AI 29% Implied 28% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

NED 4-3-3 · JPN 3-4-2-1
NED · 4-3-3 3-4-2-1 · JPN 1 Verbruggen 22 Dumfries 15 Ven 4 Dijk ⚽ 6 Hecke 8 Gravenberch 21 Jong 14 Reijnders 24 Summerville ⚽ 18 Malen 11 Gakpo 1 Suzuki 16 Watanabe 3 Taniguchi 21 Itō 10 Doan 15 Kamada ⚽ 24 Sano 13 Nakamura ⚽ 8 Kubo 11 Maeda 18 Ueda
Subs used · NED
70' Depay ↑ · Malen ↓
70' Koopmeiners ↑ · Summerville ↓
70' Timber ↑ · Reijnders ↓
81' Ake ↑ · Gravenberch ↓
85' Brobbey ↑ · Gakpo ↓
Subs used · JPN
66' Ito ↑ · Maeda ↓
75' Tomiyasu ↑ · Watanabe ↓
75' Ogawa ↑ · Kubo ↓
75' Sugawara ↑ · Doan ↓
84' Shiogai ↑ · Ueda ↓

Statistics

NED 2 – 2 JPN
60%
Possession (%)
40%
0.79
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.54
10
Total Shots
10
6
Shots on Target
3
3
Shots off Target
6
10
Shots Inside Box
6
5
Corner Kicks
4
1
Offsides
0
7
Fouls
7
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
84%
3
Yellow Cards
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

17 · 2 – 2
Half-time · 0 – 0
V. van Dijk
Assist · R. Gravenberch · 1–0
⚽
51'
57'
⚽
K. Nakamura
Assist · T. Kubo · 1–1
C. Summerville
Yellow Card
▮
61'
C. Summerville
Assist · R. Gravenberch · 2–1
⚽
64'
66'
⇄
J. Ito ↓ · D. Maeda ↑
Substitution 1
M. Depay ↓ · D. Malen ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
70'
T. Koopmeiners ↓ · C. Summerville ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
70'
Q. Timber ↓ · T. Reijnders ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
70'
75'
⇄
T. Tomiyasu ↓ · T. Watanabe ↑
Substitution 2
75'
⇄
K. Ogawa ↓ · T. Kubo ↑
Substitution 3
75'
⇄
Y. Sugawara ↓ · R. Doan ↑
Substitution 4
N. Ake ↓ · R. Gravenberch ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
81'
M. Depay
Yellow Card
▮
83'
84'
⇄
K. Shiogai ↓ · A. Ueda ↑
Substitution 5
B. Brobbey ↓ · C. Gakpo ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
85'
88'
⚽
D. Kamada
Assist · K. Ogawa · 2–2
M. van de Ven
Yellow Card
▮
90+1'
Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Netherlands and Japan drew 2–2. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 60% of the ball. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: V. van Dijk (51'), K. Nakamura (57'), C. Summerville (64'), D. Kamada (88').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.09 units (Brier 0.211).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 1.80 1.76 54% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.88 1.78 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.91 2.05 50% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.79 1.80 52% Cashed +0.79 Cashed
BTTS No 1.96 1.95 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.98 2.05 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.75 2.62 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.60 3.73 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.45 1.49 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.32 1.28 71% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.29 3.70 29% Cashed +2.29 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.29 1.33 72% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.40 3.30 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 1.06 91% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Under 0.5 10.00 9.01 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.55 3.40 26% Cashed +2.55 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.26 1.26 71% Cashed +0.26 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.09u −6% ROI
Value pick of the night · Away Win
NED – JPN @ 3.60
+3.5%
Edge
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