Match USA vs Paraguay June 13, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

USA faces Paraguay in a neutral World Cup qualifier setting with limited data on the home side, adding uncertainty. Paraguay's recent form shows resilience with a solid defensive record and a compact block that keeps clean sheets often. The match may lean towards a cautious tempo given the low goal expectations and Paraguay's disciplined defensive approach.

Paraguay's defensive solidity and clean sheet frequency
USA's unknown form adds unpredictability
Likely a tactical battle with few clear chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

USA 4-2-3-1 · PAR 4-4-2

USA · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · PAR

20 Balogun ⚽

Subs used · USA

46'

Berhalter ↑ ·

Pulisic ↓

72'

Weah ↑ ·

Dest ↓

72'

Pepi ↑ ·

Balogun ↓

82'

Reyna ↑ ·

Tillman ↓

Subs used · PAR

46'

Mauricio ↑ ·

Bobadilla ↓

62'

Arce ↑ ·

Sanabria ↓

79'

Sosa ↑ ·

Almiron ↓

79'

Velazquez ↑ ·

Caceres ↓

80'

Kaku ↑ ·

Gomez ↓

📊 Statistics

USA 4 – 1 PAR

65%

Possession (%)

35%

1.27

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.51

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

72%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

20 · 4 – 1

D. Bobadilla

Own goal · 1–0

⚽

10'

▮

J. Caceres

Yellow Card

F. Balogun

Assist · C. Pulisic · 2–0

⚽

31'

Half-time · 2 – 0

46'

⇄

Mauricio ↓ · D. Bobadilla ↑

Substitution 1

S. Berhalter ↓ · C. Pulisic ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

F. Balogun

Assist · M. Tillman · 3–0

⚽

45+5'

53'

▮

M. Almiron

Yellow Card

T. Adams

Yellow Card

▮

59'

62'

⇄

A. Arce ↓ · A. Sanabria ↑

Substitution 2

T. Weah ↓ · S. Dest ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

72'

R. Pepi ↓ · F. Balogun ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

72'

73'

⚽

Mauricio

Assist · J. Enciso · 3–1

79'

▮

D. Gomez

Yellow Card

79'

⇄

R. Sosa ↓ · M. Almiron ↑

Substitution 3

79'

⇄

G. Velazquez ↓ · J. Caceres ↑

Substitution 4

80'

⇄

Kaku ↓ · D. Gomez ↑

Substitution 5

G. Reyna ↓ · M. Tillman ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

82'

88'

▮

A. Arce

Yellow Card

90+3'

▮

J. Alonso

Yellow Card

G. Reyna

Assist · A. Freeman · 4–1

⚽

90+8'

Full-time · 4 – 1

Match recap

USA beat Paraguay 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 3–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 65% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 85% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.27 to 0.51. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 9, 6 on target. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.27 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: D. Bobadilla (7'), F. Balogun (31'), F. Balogun (45+5'), Mauricio (73'), G. Reyna (90+8').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.38 units (Brier 0.226).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.83	1.72	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.62	1.53	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.30	2.50	41%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
BTTS No	1.78	1.70	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.00	2.07	47%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
Home Win	1.94	2.10	47%	Cashed	+0.94	Cashed
Under 1.5	2.87	2.62	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.00	2.65	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.19	3.80	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.20	1.16	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.40	1.45	67%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.32	4.65	22%	Cashed	+3.32	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	1.07	88%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.00	6.99	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.40	3.25	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.22	1.25	74%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.39	1.48	47%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.38u	−8% ROI