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Home World World Cup Mexico — South Africa

Predictions Mexico vs South Africa June 11, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

World   /   World Cup
Mexico
Mexico
Home · last 5 W W W W L
Kick-off
Thu 11 Jun · 19:00
2:0
Full-time
South Africa
South Africa
L D W L Away · last 5
Estadio Banorte · Mexico City Referee Wilton Pereira Sampaio, Brazil
Home Win · MEX
60%
Best 1.44
Draw
22%
Best 4.60
Away Win · RSA
18%
Best 9.00
Model pick
Under 2.5
@ 1.67
Fair odds
1.76
book 1.67 · no edge vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 57%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
No value bet found The model's probabilities are close to bookmaker prices, so there is no clear edge right now. The markets below show the most likely outcomes, not value bets.
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win
Probability 17.9%
Odds 8.48
Show model details
Implied probability 11.8%
Bet quality Low
Home Win Best in group
Probability 60.4%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 21.7%
Odds 4.47
Show model details
Implied probability 22.4%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 56.9%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 31.2%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 68.8%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 89%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 11%
Odds 8.50
Show model details
Implied probability 11.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 76.8%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 23.2%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 37.4%
Odds 2.51
Show model details
Implied probability 39.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 62.6%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 17.9%
Odds 5.90
Show model details
Implied probability 17%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 60.4%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 39.6%
Odds 2.88
Show model details
Implied probability 34.8%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Best in group
Probability 82.1%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.