Match Mexico vs South Africa June 11, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Mexico faces South Africa at Estadio Azteca in a World Cup qualifier with limited data on Mexico's recent form, adding uncertainty. South Africa arrives with strong momentum, unbeaten in their last five qualifiers and showing solid defensive resilience with multiple clean sheets. The match may lean towards a cautious tempo given the moderate goal expectations and South Africa's compact defensive setup.

South Africa's recent form suggests confidence and defensive discipline.
Mexico's home advantage is tempered by lack of recent form data.
Expect a tactical battle with moderate chances and a controlled pace.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

MEX 4-1-4-1 · RSA 5-3-2

MEX · 4-1-4-1 5-3-2 · RSA

9 Jiménez ⚽

Subs used · MEX

66'

Chavez ↑ ·

Gutierrez ↓

66'

Mora ↑ ·

Fidalgo ↓

76'

Alvarez ↑ ·

Lira ↓

76'

Gonzalez ↑ ·

Jimenez ↓

79'

Vega ↑ ·

Quinones ↓

Subs used · RSA

56'

Mbatha ↑ ·

Foster ↓

61'

Zwane ↑ ·

Adams ↓

77'

Makgopa ↑ ·

Rayners ↓

77'

Appollis ↑ ·

Modiba ↓

📊 Statistics

MEX 2 – 0 RSA

61%

Possession (%)

39%

1.41

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.07

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

90%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 2 – 0

J. Quinones

Assist · E. Lira · 1–0

⚽

17'

▮

T. Mokoena

Yellow Card

B. Gutierrez

Yellow Card

▮

23'

Half-time · 1 – 0

49'

▮

Y. Sithole

Red Card

56'

⇄

T. Mbatha ↓ · L. Foster ↑

Substitution 1

61'

⇄

T. Zwane ↓ · J. Adams ↑

Substitution 2

L. Chavez ↓ · B. Gutierrez ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

66'

G. Mora ↓ · A. Fidalgo ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

66'

R. Jimenez

Assist · R. Alvarado · 2–0

⚽

67'

74'

▮

N. Sibisi

Yellow Card

E. Alvarez ↓ · E. Lira ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

76'

A. Gonzalez ↓ · R. Jimenez ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

76'

77'

⇄

E. Makgopa ↓ · I. Rayners ↑

Substitution 3

77'

⇄

O. Appollis ↓ · A. Modiba ↑

Substitution 4

A. Vega ↓ · J. Quinones ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

79'

84'

▮

T. Zwane

Red Card

C. Montes

Red Card

▮

90+2'

Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Mexico beat South Africa 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 90% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.41 to 0.07. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 3, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Quinones (9'), R. Jimenez (67'). Y. Sithole was sent off in the 49' minute. T. Zwane was sent off in the 84' minute. C. Montes was sent off in the 90+2' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.63 units (Brier 0.094).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.67	1.73	57%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.20	2.15	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.51	2.42	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.88	2.88	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	8.48	8.62	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.50	1.52	63%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.00	3.19	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.40	1.40	60%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
AH Away 0	5.90	6.06	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.47	4.55	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.36	1.36	69%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	1.07	89%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.50	8.47	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.21	1.25	77%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.00	4.00	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.06	1.07	82%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.12	1.11	60%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−6.63u	−39% ROI