Match Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna May 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Sturm Graz holds a clear quality edge over Rapid Vienna, backed by stronger home form and a solid defensive setup. Their pressing and compact block at Merkur-Arena could stifle Rapid’s attack, which has struggled recently. The home side’s momentum and tactical discipline suggest a controlled game with limited chances.

Home defensive resilience vs away offensive struggles
Recent form favors Sturm Graz’s consistency
Moderate pace expected, leaning to under 2.5 goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

STU 4-2-3-1 · RAP 3-4-2-1

STU · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · RAP

20 Jatta

📊 Statistics

STU 2 – 0 RAP

67%

Possession (%)

33%

2.17

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.19

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

66%

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Sturm Graz beat Rapid Vienna 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.17 to 0.19. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 23 shots to 4, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 3. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.49 units (Brier 0.111).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.08	—	56%	Cashed	+1.08	Cashed
BTTS No	2.15	—	54%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
Home Win	1.91	—	58%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.91	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.67	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.74	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.76	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.75	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.40	—	76%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Under 0.5	13.00	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.00	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.29	—	81%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.42	—	58%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.04	—	89%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Draw	3.75	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.22	—	67%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
Away Win	3.75	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.49u	−26% ROI