Match Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg May 17, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.71 — +11.4% better than the market.

Red Bull Salzburg holds a clear quality edge and home momentum against TSV Hartberg. Their attacking strength outmatches Hartberg's defense, suggesting Salzburg can control the game tempo and create chances. Recent form favors Salzburg slightly, and the home side’s compact block and pressing edge could stifle Hartberg’s limited offensive threat.

Home attacking superiority vs away defense
Better recent form and home momentum
Likely controlled pace with moderate goal expectancy

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.71 ✗ Lost

AI 65% Implied 58% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SAL 4-3-3 · HAR 5-4-1

SAL · 4-3-3 5-4-1 · HAR

11 Vertessen

📊 Statistics

SAL 1 – 3 HAR

66%

Possession (%)

34%

1.90

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.16

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

76%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

TSV Hartberg won 3–1 away at Red Bull Salzburg. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 66% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.90 to 1.16. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 9, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 13 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.16 expected goals.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +13.20 units (Brier 0.379).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.71	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.70	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.00	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.82	—	45%	Cashed	+0.82	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.10	—	35%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
Under 1.5	6.00	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	19.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.06	—	94%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.25	—	77%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.03	—	77%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.44	—	55%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Draw	6.25	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	—	92%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Double Chance X2	4.00	—	23%	Cashed	+3.00	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.12	—	74%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Away Win	11.00	—	6%	Cashed	+10.00	Cashed
AH Away 0	7.70	—	6%	Cashed	+6.70	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+13.20u	+78% ROI

Match Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg May 17, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.71 — +11.4% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled