P
Prognosist
P
⚽ Football 57 + Value 23 📈 Forecasts
Football Spain La Liga Mallorca — Oviedo
Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Mallorca
Mallorca
Home · last 5 L W D L L
Kick-off
Sat 23 May · 19:00
1:0
Live · 45'
Oviedo
Oviedo
L L D L L Away · last 5
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix · Palma de Mallorca Referee J. Sanchez
Home Win · MAL
68%
Best 1.51
Draw
21%
Best 4.62
Away Win · OVI
11%
Best 7.50
Best bet
Under 2.5
@ 2.00
Fair odds
1.78
book 2.00 · +12.3% better than market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Best bet confidence
High
p 56% · EV +12.3%
AI preview · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.00 — +12.3% better than the market.

Mallorca holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, backed by a solid defensive setup that could stifle Oviedo’s modest attack. Oviedo’s recent form and away struggles suggest they may find it tough to break down Mallorca’s compact block. The match hints at a cautious tempo, with under 2.5 goals favored given both sides’ defensive discipline and limited goal threat.

  • Mallorca’s home defensive solidity vs Oviedo’s lower offensive output
  • Recent form favors Mallorca’s slightly better consistency
  • Likely controlled pace with few clear-cut chances

Best bet of the night · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.00
AI 56% Implied 50% Value
+12.3%
Expected value

Market · Fair (consensus)

4 bookmakers consensus · 15-min refresh
Market Best bookmaker Fair (consensus) AI prob. Edge
Under 1.5 3.80 3.75 30% +14.9% Watch
Under 2.5 2.00 1.91 56% +12.3% Top pick
Home Win 1.54 1.46 68% +5.3% Watch
Under 3.5 1.36 1.33 76% +3.0% Watch
Double Chance 1X 1.14 1.11 89% +1.7% Watch
BTTS No 1.80 1.75 55% −0.6% Pass
Draw 4.57 4.45 21% −4.8% Pass
Over 0.5 1.05 1.04 90% −5.2% Pass
BTTS Yes 2.05 2.00 45% −8.2% Pass
Over 1.5 1.28 1.25 70% −10.7% Pass
Over 2.5 1.94 1.91 44% −14.9% Pass
Double Chance X2 2.64 2.63 32% −16.5% Pass
Over 3.5 3.20 3.25 24% −22.3% Pass
Away Win 7.00 6.86 11% −24.5% Pass
Under 1.5
book 3.80 · fair 3.75 · 30%
+14.9%
Watch
Under 2.5
book 2.00 · fair 1.91 · 56%
+12.3%
Top pick
Home Win
book 1.54 · fair 1.46 · 68%
+5.3%
Watch
Under 3.5
book 1.36 · fair 1.33 · 76%
+3.0%
Watch
Double Chance 1X
book 1.14 · fair 1.11 · 89%
+1.7%
Watch
BTTS No
book 1.80 · fair 1.75 · 55%
−0.6%
Pass
Draw
book 4.57 · fair 4.45 · 21%
−4.8%
Pass
Over 0.5
book 1.05 · fair 1.04 · 90%
−5.2%
Pass
BTTS Yes
book 2.05 · fair 2.00 · 45%
−8.2%
Pass
Over 1.5
book 1.28 · fair 1.25 · 70%
−10.7%
Pass
Over 2.5
book 1.94 · fair 1.91 · 44%
−14.9%
Pass
Double Chance X2
book 2.64 · fair 2.63 · 32%
−16.5%
Pass
Over 3.5
book 3.20 · fair 3.25 · 24%
−22.3%
Pass
Away Win
book 7.00 · fair 6.86 · 11%
−24.5%
Pass
Best bookmaker — highest offer across all bookmakers. Fair (consensus) — median of all bookmakers with the bookmaker margin removed. AI prob. — AI's estimated probability of the outcome. Edge — how much the best bookmaker beats the AI-implied price (positive = value). ★ Top pick — highest-EV value bet; Watch — positive edge below the value threshold; Pass — no edge.

Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match
1.19
Goals Scored
0.70
1.54
Goals Conceded
1.54
1.09
Expected Goals (xG)
0.91
4.05
Shots on Target
3.27
3.65
Corners
3.89
46.65
Possession (%)
46.14
103.64
Efficiency index
80.31
73.81
Adjusted index
53.21
Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date
30
OFF · home
0
25
DEF · home
30
5
OFF · away
40
5
DEF · away
10
Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers
Home Win Draw Away Win

🎯 Scenario insights

Mallorca wins when scoring first
50%
Oviedo wins when scoring first
100%
Mallorca BTTS rate · last 10
70%
Oviedo BTTS rate · last 10
30%
Mallorca Over 2.5 · last 10
60%
Oviedo Over 2.5 · last 10
40%
Mallorca comeback rate · last 10
33%
Oviedo comeback rate · last 10
0%

🔥 Goal timing

Mallorca · last 10 at home

0–15 6%
16–30 6%
31–45 28%
46–60 11%
61–75 28%
76–90 22%

Oviedo · last 10 away

0–15 17%
16–30 0%
31–45 33%
46–60 33%
61–75 8%
76–90 8%
Second-half-heavy — most goals come after the break.

Top scorers

V. Muriqi
MAL · Forward
22 G · 0.65 g/90
F. Viñas
OVI · Attacker
9 G · 0.38 g/90

Community forecasts

What other tipsters predicted · 1 in the sample
MA
@maksymovmp
ROI -5.1%
48 minutes from now
La Liga Sa 23 May · 19:00
Mallorca Mallorca
1 : 0 live '
Oviedo Oviedo
Goals Over/Under First Half Over 1.5 @ 2.81
Stake 74 coins
Payout 208 pending
P/L +134 potential vs stake
Pending
Best bet of the night · Under 2.5
MAL – OVI @ 2.00
+12.3%
Edge
Forecast →