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Prognosist
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⚽ Football 57 + Value 23 📈 Forecasts
Football Spain La Liga Girona — Elche
Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Girona
Girona
Home · last 5 L L D D L
Kick-off
Sat 23 May · 19:00
0:1
Live · 45'
Elche
Elche
W L D L W Away · last 5
Estadio Municipal de Montilivi · Girona Referee A. Hernandez
Home Win · GIR
45%
Best 1.87
Draw
24%
Best 4.02
Away Win · ELC
31%
Best 4.33
Best bet
BTTS No
@ 2.25
Fair odds
1.98
book 2.25 · +13.5% better than market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Best bet confidence
Medium
p 50% · EV +13.5%
AI preview · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.25 — +13.5% better than the market.

Girona hosts Elche in a La Liga clash where the away side holds a slight quality edge and better recent form. Girona’s defensive solidity faces a probing Elche attack, suggesting a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances. The home side’s home edge is modest, and both teams have shown signs of cautious play recently, hinting at a controlled tempo and a likely low-scoring affair.

  • Elche’s pressing and recent momentum could unsettle Girona’s backline
  • Girona’s compact defensive block may restrict goal opportunities
  • Odds and form suggest under 2.5 goals with a tight contest

Best bet of the night · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 2.25
AI 50% Implied 44% Value
+13.5%
Expected value
Why we like it. Line shortened by 1.3 pp toward our pick across the snapshot window.

Market · Fair (consensus)

4 bookmakers consensus · 15-min refresh
Market Best bookmaker Fair (consensus) AI prob. Edge
BTTS No 2.25 2.17 50% +13.5% Top pick
Double Chance X2 2.02 2.00 55% +10.3% Watch
Under 3.5 1.47 1.47 74% +8.2% Bet
Draw 4.00 3.85 24% −5.0% Pass
Over 0.5 1.04 1.02 91% −5.1% Pass
Double Chance 1X 1.26 1.21 69% −12.9% Pass
Over 1.5 1.22 1.20 71% −13.3% Pass
Home Win 1.88 1.80 45% −14.7% Pass
BTTS Yes 1.67 1.65 50% −17.2% Pass
Over 2.5 1.73 1.67 46% −19.7% Pass
Over 3.5 2.75 2.62 26% −27.4% Pass
BTTS No
book 2.25 · fair 2.17 · 50%
+13.5%
Top pick
Double Chance X2
book 2.02 · fair 2.00 · 55%
+10.3%
Watch
Under 3.5
book 1.47 · fair 1.47 · 74%
+8.2%
Bet
Draw
book 4.00 · fair 3.85 · 24%
−5.0%
Pass
Over 0.5
book 1.04 · fair 1.02 · 91%
−5.1%
Pass
Double Chance 1X
book 1.26 · fair 1.21 · 69%
−12.9%
Pass
Over 1.5
book 1.22 · fair 1.20 · 71%
−13.3%
Pass
Home Win
book 1.88 · fair 1.80 · 45%
−14.7%
Pass
BTTS Yes
book 1.67 · fair 1.65 · 50%
−17.2%
Pass
Over 2.5
book 1.73 · fair 1.67 · 46%
−19.7%
Pass
Over 3.5
book 2.75 · fair 2.62 · 26%
−27.4%
Pass
Best bookmaker — highest offer across all bookmakers. Fair (consensus) — median of all bookmakers with the bookmaker margin removed. AI prob. — AI's estimated probability of the outcome. Edge — how much the best bookmaker beats the AI-implied price (positive = value). ★ Top pick — highest-EV value bet; Watch — positive edge below the value threshold; Pass — no edge.

Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match
1.03
Goals Scored
1.30
1.46
Goals Conceded
1.51
1.27
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
4.03
Shots on Target
3.89
4.22
Corners
3.86
50.49
Possession (%)
58.05
88.22
Efficiency index
108.82
69.40
Adjusted index
76.99
Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date
20
OFF · home
55
10
DEF · home
5
85
OFF · away
0
40
DEF · away
20
Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers
Home Win Draw Away Win

🎯 Scenario insights

Girona wins when scoring first
50%
Elche wins when scoring first
100%
Girona BTTS rate · last 10
50%
Elche BTTS rate · last 10
70%
Girona Over 2.5 · last 10
30%
Elche Over 2.5 · last 10
60%
Girona comeback rate · last 10
0%
Elche comeback rate · last 10
0%

🔥 Goal timing

Girona · last 10 at home

0–15 18%
16–30 0%
31–45 18%
46–60 0%
61–75 27%
76–90 36%

Elche · last 10 away

0–15 20%
16–30 10%
31–45 20%
46–60 0%
61–75 20%
76–90 30%
Late-game scoring — most goals come after the 60th.

Top scorers

V. Vanat
GIR · Forward
9 G · 0.41 g/90
André Silva
ELC · Attacker
10 G · 0.51 g/90

Community forecasts

What other tipsters predicted · 1 in the sample
MA
@maksymovmp
ROI -5.1%
52 minutes from now
La Liga Sa 23 May · 19:00
Girona Girona
0 : 1 live '
Elche Elche
Match Winner Home @ 1.87
Stake 78 coins
Payout 146 pending
P/L +68 potential vs stake
Pending
Best bet of the night · BTTS No
GIR – ELC @ 2.25
+13.5%
Edge
Forecast →