Match Oviedo vs Alaves May 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.80 — +12.9% better than the market.

Alaves arrive with a clear quality edge and stronger offensive potential against Oviedo's leaky defense. Despite Oviedo's home ground, their recent form shows inconsistency, while Alaves have momentum from better recent results. The tactical battle favors Alaves' sharper attack against a vulnerable backline, suggesting a controlled away performance.

Alaves' offensive edge vs Oviedo's defense
Home side's patchy recent form
Moderate pace expected with under 2.5 goals likely

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.80 ✓ Cashed

AI 63% Implied 56% +0.80u

+80%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

OVI 4-2-3-1 · ALA 4-4-2

OVI · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · ALA

9 Viñas

Subs used · OVI

46'

Fernandez ↑ ·

Fonseca ↓

66'

Chaira ↑ ·

Colombatto ↓

79'

Fores ↑ ·

Vinas ↓

79'

Borbas ↑ ·

Hassan ↓

85'

Vidal ↑ ·

Ahijado ↓

Subs used · ALA

46'

Yusi ↑ ·

Rebbach ↓

69'

Manas ↑ ·

Diabate ↓

69'

Ibanez ↑ ·

Suarez ↓

82'

Boye ↑ ·

Martinez ↓

87'

Protesoni ↑ ·

Guridi ↓

📊 Statistics

OVI 0 – 1 ALA

70%

Possession (%)

30%

0.34

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.46

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

72%

Yellow Cards

⏱ Match events

15 · 0 – 1

17'

⚽

T. Martinez

Assist · A. Rebbach · 0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

T. Fernandez ↓ · N. Fonseca ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

⇄

Yusi ↓ · A. Rebbach ↑

Substitution 1

T. Fernandez

Yellow Card

▮

48'

F. Vinas

Yellow Card

▮

65'

I. Chaira ↓ · S. Colombatto ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

66'

69'

⇄

A. Manas ↓ · I. Diabate ↑

Substitution 2

69'

⇄

P. Ibanez ↓ · D. Suarez ↑

Substitution 3

L. Ahijado

Yellow Card

▮

71'

A. Fores ↓ · F. Vinas ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

79'

T. Borbas ↓ · H. Hassan ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

79'

82'

⇄

L. Boye ↓ · T. Martinez ↑

Substitution 4

N. Vidal ↓ · L. Ahijado ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

85'

87'

⇄

C. Protesoni ↓ · J. Guridi ↑

Substitution 5

90+4'

▮

Yusi

Yellow Card

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Alaves won 1–0 away at Oviedo. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 70% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.46 to 0.34. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: T. Martinez (17').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.76 units (Brier 0.135).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.80	1.76	63%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
BTTS No	1.95	1.85	57%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Away Win	2.00	2.00	56%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.92	1.78	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.23	2.20	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.75	1.87	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.40	3.10	36%	Cashed	+2.40	Cashed
Under 0.5	12.00	8.47	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.28	1.22	81%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.29	1.26	81%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.48	1.46	56%	Cashed	+0.48	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.20	3.75	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.86	3.40	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	1.06	89%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.93	2.82	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.36	1.33	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.96	3.85	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.76u	−16% ROI