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Home Spain La Liga Alaves — Barcelona

Predictions Alaves vs Barcelona May 13, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Alaves
Alaves
Home · last 5 L D W W L
Kick-off
Wed 13 May · 19:30
1:0
Full-time
Barcelona
Barcelona
W W L W L Away · last 5
Estadio de Mendizorroza · Vitoria-Gasteiz Referee J. Sanchez
Home Win · ALA
23%
Best 3.28
Draw
24%
Best 3.80
Away Win · BAR
54%
Best 2.24
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.55
Fair odds
2.26
book 2.55 · +13.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 44% · EV +13.1%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (54%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Top pick
Probability 53.6%
Odds 2.15
Show model details
Implied probability 46.5%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 24%
Odds 3.84
Show model details
Implied probability 26%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 22.5%
Odds 3.88
Show model details
Implied probability 25.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 44.3%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 54.3%
Odds 1.64
Show model details
Implied probability 61%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 34.6%
Odds 2.36
Show model details
Implied probability 42.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5 Value pick
Probability 65.4%
Odds 1.69
Show model details
Implied probability 59.2%
Bet quality High
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96.1%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 85.8%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 14.2%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 3.9%
Odds 20.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 61.7%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 53.6%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 22.5%
Odds 2.84
Show model details
Implied probability 35.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 46.4%
Odds 1.89
Show model details
Implied probability 52.9%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 77.5%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
ALA – BAR @ 2.55
+13.1%
Edge
Forecast →