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Home Spain La Liga Rayo Vallecano — Girona

Predictions Rayo Vallecano vs Girona May 11, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
Home · last 5 W D D W W
Kick-off
Mon 11 May · 19:00
1:1
Full-time
Girona
Girona
L D D L D Away · last 5
Estadio de Vallecas · Madrid Referee G. Cuadra
Home Win · RAY
37%
Best 2.52
Draw
27%
Best 3.19
Away Win · GIR
36%
Best 3.27
Value pick
Away Win
@ 3.10
Fair odds
2.78
book 3.10 · +11.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 36% · EV +11.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (37%), but Away Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 37.3%
Odds 2.56
Show model details
Implied probability 39.1%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 35.9%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 26.8%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 54.8%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 45.2%
Odds 2.28
Show model details
Implied probability 43.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 75.8%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 24.2%
Odds 3.80
Show model details
Implied probability 26.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 30%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 8.4%
Odds 12.00
Show model details
Implied probability 8.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.6%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 73.6%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 50.2%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 49.8%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 35.9%
Odds 2.14
Show model details
Implied probability 46.7%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 37.3%
Odds 1.82
Show model details
Implied probability 55%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 62.7%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 64.1%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Away Win
RAY – GIR @ 3.10
+11.3%
Edge
Forecast →