P
Prognosist
P
Home Spain La Liga Real Madrid — Alaves

Predictions Real Madrid vs Alaves April 21, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 W L W W W
Kick-off
Tue 21 Apr · 19:30
2:1
Full-time
Alaves
Alaves
L D W W L Away · last 5
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu · Madrid Referee Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
Home Win · REA
78%
Best 1.22
Draw
17%
Best 6.91
Away Win · ALA
6%
Best 12.00
Value pick
Draw
@ 6.40
Fair odds
6.01
book 6.40 · +6.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 17% · EV +6.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (78%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 16.6%
Odds 6.40
Show model details
Implied probability 15.6%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 77.7%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.3%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 5.7%
Odds 13.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 43.4%
Odds 2.28
Show model details
Implied probability 43.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 56.6%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 35.2%
Odds 2.67
Show model details
Implied probability 37.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 64.8%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.9%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 84.4%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 15.6%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.1%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 52.5%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 47.5%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 77.7%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 5.7%
Odds 6.60
Show model details
Implied probability 15.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 94.3%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 22.4%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
REA – ALA @ 6.40
+6.4%
Edge
Forecast →