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Home Spain La Liga Real Madrid — Alaves

Predictions Real Madrid vs Alaves April 21, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 W L W W W
Kick-off
Tue 21 Apr · 19:30
2:1
Full-time
Alaves
Alaves
L D W W L Away · last 5
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu · Madrid Referee Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
Home Win · REA
78%
Best 1.22
Draw
17%
Best 6.91
Away Win · ALA
6%
Best 12.00
Value pick
BTTS Yes
@ 1.91
Fair odds
1.90
book 1.91 · +0.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 53% · EV +0.3%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 16.6%
Odds 6.40
Show model details
Implied probability 15.6%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 77.7%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.3%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 5.7%
Odds 13.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 43.4%
Odds 2.28
Show model details
Implied probability 43.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 56.6%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 35.2%
Odds 2.67
Show model details
Implied probability 37.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 64.8%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.9%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 84.4%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 15.6%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.1%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 52.5%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 47.5%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 77.7%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 5.7%
Odds 6.60
Show model details
Implied probability 15.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 94.3%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 22.4%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.