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Home Germany Germany Bundesliga FSV Mainz 05 — Hamburger SV

Predictions FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV February 20, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
Home · last 5 D L W L W
Kick-off
Fri 20 Feb · 19:30
1:1
Full-time
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
L L W W D Away · last 5
MEWA ARENA · Mainz Referee Robin Braun, Germany
Home Win · MAI
40%
Best 2.08
Draw
27%
Best 3.40
Away Win · HAM
33%
Best 3.60
Value pick
BTTS No
@ 2.30
Fair odds
2.10
book 2.30 · +9.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 48% · EV +9.6%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — BTTS Yes is more likely (52%), but BTTS No is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 40.1%
Odds 2.17
Show model details
Implied probability 46.1%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 33.4%
Odds 4.02
Show model details
Implied probability 24.9%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 26.6%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 51.7%
Odds 2.06
Show model details
Implied probability 48.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 48.3%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 26.4%
Odds 4.12
Show model details
Implied probability 24.3%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 27.2%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.3%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 8.7%
Odds 11.00
Show model details
Implied probability 9.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 73.6%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 47.6%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 52.4%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 33.4%
Odds 2.82
Show model details
Implied probability 35.5%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 40.1%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 59.9%
Odds 1.77
Show model details
Implied probability 56.5%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 66.6%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · BTTS No
MAI – HAM @ 2.30
+9.6%
Edge
Forecast →