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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › FC Augsburg — 1. FC Heidenheim

FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
FC Augsburg
FC Augsburg
Home · last 5 W D W W L
Kick-off
Sun 15 Feb · 14:30
1:0
Full-time
1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim
L W D W L Away · last 5
WWK Arena · Augsburg Referee Felix Zwayer, Germany
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 59% · book 1.90 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 52% · book 2.20 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 49% · book 2.23 ✓
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
1.91 – 0.97
Δ +0.94
Possession
49% – 51%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.20 — +14.6% better than the market.

FC Augsburg holds a clear quality edge and home momentum after recent solid results, while Heidenheim struggles with form and defensive consistency. Augsburg's compact defensive block and slightly better home edge suggest they can control the pace and limit Heidenheim's attacking threats. Expect a tactical battle with a moderate tempo, leaning towards a low to medium scoring affair given both sides' defensive focus.

  • Augsburg's home solidity vs Heidenheim's shaky defense
  • Recent form favors home side's confidence
  • Moderate pace hints at controlled, tactical play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.20 ✓ Cashed
AI 52% Implied 45% +1.20u
+120%
ROI on stake

Lineups

AUG 3-4-2-1 · HEI 3-4-2-1
AUG · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · HEI 1 Dahmen 40 Banks 31 Schlotterbeck 16 Zesiger 30 Kade 17 Jakić 4 Massengo 19 Fellhauer 36 Kömür 20 Claude-Maurice ⚽ 38 Gregoritsch 41 Ramaj 2 Busch 6 Mainka 5 Gimber 22 Ibrahimović 16 Niehues 3 Schöppner 26 Behrens 8 Dinkçi 10 Conteh 9 Schimmer
Subs used · AUG
59' Wolf ↑ · Kade ↓
59' Ribeiro ↑ · Gregoritsch ↓
73' Giannoulis ↑ · Fellhauer ↓
73' Rexhbecaj ↑ · Jakic ↓
90' Rieder ↑ · Komur ↓
Subs used · HEI
64' Conteh ↑ · Conteh ↓
64' Pieringer ↑ · Schimmer ↓
81' Zivzivadze ↑ · Niehues ↓
87' Honsak ↑ · Schoppner ↓
87' Beck ↑ · Behrens ↓

Statistics

AUG 1 – 0 HEI
49%
Possession (%)
51%
1.91
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.97
12
Total Shots
16
4
Shots on Target
2
6
Shots off Target
6
7
Shots Inside Box
6
4
Corner Kicks
5
9
Fouls
9
78%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
1
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

14 · 1 – 0
Half-time · 0 – 0
M. Wolf ↓ · A. Kade ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
59'
R. Ribeiro ↓ · M. Gregoritsch ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
59'
64'
⇄
S. Conteh ↓ · C. Conteh ↑
Substitution 1
64'
⇄
M. Pieringer ↓ · S. Schimmer ↑
Substitution 2
D. Giannoulis ↓ · R. Fellhauer ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
73'
E. Rexhbecaj ↓ · K. Jakic ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
73'
79'
▮
Benedikt Gimber
Yellow Card
A. Claude-Maurice (P)
Penalty · 1–0
⚽
80'
81'
⇄
B. Zivzivadze ↓ · J. Niehues ↑
Substitution 3
87'
⇄
M. Honsak ↓ · J. Schoppner ↑
Substitution 4
87'
⇄
A. Beck ↓ · H. Behrens ↑
Substitution 5
F. Rieder ↓ · M. Komur ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90'
90+3'
▮
Budu Zivzivadze
Yellow Card
Finn Dahmen
Yellow Card
▮
90+4'
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

FC Augsburg beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.91 to 0.97. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 12, 2 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Claude-Maurice (80').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.18 units (Brier 0.166).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.90 — 59% Cashed +0.90 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.20 — 52% Cashed +1.20 Cashed
BTTS No 2.23 — 49% Cashed +1.23 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.69 — 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.78 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.02 — 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.45 — 73% Cashed +0.45 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.40 — 59% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.33 — 28% Cashed +3.33 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.26 — 83% Cashed +0.26 Cashed
Under 0.5 14.40 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.88 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.05 — 92% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Draw 3.92 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.25 — 72% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.16 — 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.26 — 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.18u −7% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
AUG – HEI @ 2.20
+14.6%
Edge
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