Match FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli January 31, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.70 — +11.7% better than the market.

FC Augsburg holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, backed by a solid defensive record that should challenge St. Pauli's attack. Augsburg's pressing and compact block at WWK Arena could stifle the visitors, who struggle to convert chances despite a resilient defense. Recent form favors Augsburg slightly, suggesting a controlled pace with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

Home defensive solidity vs away offensive struggles
Better recent form and home comfort
Likely tactical caution leading to fewer goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.70 ✗ Lost

AI 66% Implied 59% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

AUG 3-4-2-1 · PAU 3-4-2-1

AUG · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · PAU

38 Gregoritsch ⚽

Subs used · AUG

46'

Keitel ↑ ·

Chaves ↓

60'

Kade ↑ ·

Rieder ↓

77'

Zesiger ↑ ·

Rexhbecaj ↓

77'

Pedersen ↑ ·

Wolf ↓

84'

Essende ↑ ·

Gregoritsch ↓

Subs used · PAU

63'

Kaars ↑ ·

Sinani ↓

63'

Pereira Lage ↑ ·

Jones ↓

71'

Irvine ↑ ·

Fujita ↓

84'

Ceesay ↑ ·

Saliakas ↓

📊 Statistics

AUG 2 – 1 PAU

44%

Possession (%)

56%

1.35

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.47

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

78%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 2 – 1

Marius Wolf

Yellow Card

▮

29'

32'

⚽

D. Sinani (P)

Penalty · 0–1

M. Gregoritsch

Assist · A. Claude-Maurice · 1–1

⚽

41'

Robin Fellhauer

Yellow Card

▮

44'

Half-time · 1 – 1

Y. Keitel ↓ · Arthur Chaves ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

M. Gregoritsch

Assist · A. Claude-Maurice · 2–1

⚽

59'

A. Kade ↓ · F. Rieder ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

60'

63'

⇄

M. Kaars ↓ · D. Sinani ↑

Substitution 1

63'

⇄

M. Pereira Lage ↓ · R. Jones ↑

Substitution 2

Noahkai Banks

Yellow Card

▮

69'

71'

⇄

J. Irvine ↓ · J. Fujita ↑

Substitution 3

C. Zesiger ↓ · E. Rexhbecaj ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

77'

M. Pedersen ↓ · M. Wolf ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

77'

S. Essende ↓ · M. Gregoritsch ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

84'

⇄

A. Ceesay ↓ · M. Saliakas ↑

Substitution 4

90+1'

▮

James Sands

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

FC Augsburg beat FC St. Pauli 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.47 to 1.35. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 12, 4 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: D. Sinani (32'), M. Gregoritsch (41'), M. Gregoritsch (59').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.09 units (Brier 0.160).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.70	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.86	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.04	—	56%	Cashed	+1.04	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.88	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.05	—	40%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.34	—	34%	Cashed	+1.34	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.05	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.50	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.27	—	83%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.44	—	61%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.43	—	56%	Cashed	+0.43	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.24	—	84%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.10	—	86%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Draw	3.44	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.01	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.26	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.33	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.09u	−24% ROI

Match FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli January 31, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.70 — +11.7% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled