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Home › Scotland › Premiership › Hibernian — Heart Of Midlothian

Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian 1:2: Match Review & Stats

Scotland   /   Premiership Value pick inside
Hibernian
Hibernian
Home · last 5 L L W W L
Kick-off
Sun 26 Apr · 15:30
1:2
Full-time
Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian
W W D W L Away · last 5
Referee D. Robertson
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 58% · book 1.90 ✗
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 47% · book 2.45 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 53% · book 2.08 ✗
Total goals
3
1 · 2
xG (open play)
0.52 – 1.83
Δ −1.31
Possession
24% – 76%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 0.5 at 9.95 — +11.4% better than the market.

Hibernian hosts Heart Of Midlothian in a clash where the visitors hold a clear quality edge, reflected in their stronger overall profile and offensive threat. Despite Hibernian's solid home form and defensive resilience, Hearts' sharper attack against a less robust defense suggests they can break through. Recent form favors Hibernian slightly, but the away side's pressing and goal threat could tilt the balance.

  • Hearts' offensive edge versus Hibernian's defense
  • Home momentum and compact block from Hibernian
  • Balanced pace hinting at a controlled but open game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 0.5
Under 0.5 @ 9.95 ✗ Lost
AI 11% Implied 10% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Statistics

HIB 1 – 2 HEA
24%
Possession (%)
76%
0.52
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.83
4
Total Shots
23
1
Shots on Target
6
3
Shots off Target
8
1
Shots Inside Box
13
0
Corner Kicks
11
0
Offsides
2
8
Fouls
17
43%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
5
Yellow Cards
3
5
Goalkeeper Saves
0

Match recap

Heart Of Midlothian won 2–1 away at Hibernian. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 76% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 81% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.83 to 0.52. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 23 shots to 4, 6 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 11 to 0. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.19 units (Brier 0.159).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.90 — 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.45 — 47% Cashed +1.45 Cashed
BTTS No 2.08 — 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.75 — 47% Cashed +0.75 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.67 — 47% Cashed +0.67 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.89 — 42% Cashed +0.89 Cashed
Home Win 2.80 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.02 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.40 — 74% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.50 — 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.52 — 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 9.95 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.20 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.33 — 78% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.05 — 89% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Draw 3.30 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.27 — 67% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.19u −25% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
HIB – HEA @ 9.95
+11.4%
Edge
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