Match Sweden vs Poland March 31, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.71 — +13.5% better than the market.

Sweden hosts Poland in a World Cup qualifier where the visitors hold a clear quality edge and recent form advantage. Poland's sharper attack faces Sweden's vulnerable defense, while Sweden's home edge is limited by their recent struggles. Expect a cautious pace with a pressing edge for Poland, who look more likely to control the game.

Poland's strong recent form contrasts Sweden's dip.
Sweden's defense under pressure from Poland's offense.
Modest home momentum may limit Sweden's attacking threat.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.71 ✗ Lost

AI 66% Implied 58% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SWE 3-4-2-1 · POL 3-4-2-1

SWE · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · POL

17 Gyökeres

📊 Statistics

SWE 3 – 2 POL

33%

Possession (%)

67%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

73%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Sweden beat Poland 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 85% of their passes. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 9, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 9 to 2. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.98 units (Brier 0.287).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	1.87	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.71	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.84	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.08	—	40%	Cashed	+1.08	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.34	—	34%	Cashed	+1.34	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.02	—	38%	Cashed	+1.02	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.15	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.00	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	9.00	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.24	—	84%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.82	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.29	—	67%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.42	—	60%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.09	—	86%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Draw	3.54	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.45	—	40%	Cashed	+0.45	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.33	—	16%	Cashed	+3.33	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.98u	−6% ROI