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Home › World › UEFA Europa League › Aston Villa — Lille

Predictions by Market: Aston Villa vs Lille

Europe   /   UEFA Europa League Value pick inside
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Home · last 5 W W L W W
Kick-off
Thu 19 Mar · 20:00
2:0
Full-time
Lille
Lille
W L W L L Away · last 5
Referee Davide Massa, Italy

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · AST
48%
Best 1.67
Draw
28%
Best 3.90
VALUE
Away Win · LIL
24%
Best 5.00
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 3.40
Fair odds
3.23
book 3.40 · +5.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 31% · EV +5.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (69%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 48%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 28%
Odds 4.16
Show model details
Implied probability 24%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Away Win Longshot value
Probability 24%
Odds 5.08
Show model details
Implied probability 19.7%
Bet quality Medium
Totals 6 markets
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 53%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 31%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 76%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality High
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 69%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 47%
Odds 1.99
Show model details
Implied probability 50.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 91%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality High
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 54%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS No
Probability 46%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Medium
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Value pick
Probability 44%
Odds 3.79
Show model details
Implied probability 26.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 28%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2 Value pick
Probability 72%
Odds 2.25
Show model details
Implied probability 44.4%
Bet quality High
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 56%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
AST – LIL @ 3.40
+5.0%
Edge
Forecast →