Match Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg March 20, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

Red Bull Salzburg enter Merkur-Arena with a clear quality edge and a stronger attack that challenges Sturm Graz's defense. Despite Salzburg's recent patchy form, their offensive threat and higher overall strength suggest they can control the game tempo. Sturm Graz's home momentum and recent resilience could keep the match tight, but Salzburg's pressing and sharper finishing might tip the balance.

Salzburg's attacking edge against Graz's defense
Home side's recent form shows fighting spirit
Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

STU 3-4-1-2 · SAL 4-3-3

STU · 3-4-1-2 4-3-3 · SAL

15 Mamageishvili

📊 Statistics

STU 1 – 1 SAL

47%

Possession (%)

53%

0.49

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.31

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

54%

Pass Accuracy (%)

58%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–1.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.31 to 0.49. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 4 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.81 units (Brier 0.164).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.41	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.20	—	54%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
Away Win	2.21	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.62	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.70	—	48%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.72	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.74	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.36	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.45	—	75%	Cashed	+0.45	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.33	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.37	—	77%	Cashed	+0.37	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.59	—	50%	Cashed	+0.59	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	90%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.60	—	25%	Cashed	+2.60	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.23	—	69%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Home Win	3.21	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.81u	−17% ROI

Match Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg March 20, 2026 — Result and Stats

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled