Match FC Thun vs FC Lugano November 22, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

FC Thun holds a clear quality edge and benefits from a moderate home advantage, suggesting they can impose their game at Stockhorn Arena. Their attacking strength faces a resilient Lugano defense, hinting at a tactical battle where Thun’s offensive pressure might unlock chances. Recent form favors Lugano slightly, but Thun’s home momentum and compact block could limit away breakthroughs.

Home side’s offensive edge against away defense
Moderate home advantage shaping tempo
Close recent form with slight away resilience

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

THU 4-4-2 · LUG 4-2-3-1

THU · 4-4-2 4-2-3-1 · LUG

74 Rastoder

📊 Statistics

THU 0 – 1 LUG

41%

Possession (%)

59%

2.14

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.78

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

78%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

FC Lugano won 1–0 away at FC Thun. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 59% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 86% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.14 to 0.78. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 13, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 5. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 9 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.79 units (Brier 0.304).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.45	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.60	—	41%	Cashed	+1.60	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.31	—	44%	Cashed	+1.31	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.64	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.63	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.84	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.62	—	52%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.06	—	27%	Cashed	+1.06	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.46	—	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.54	—	66%	Cashed	+0.54	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.53	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.82	—	27%	Cashed	+1.82	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.80	—	21%	Cashed	+3.80	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.04	—	94%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Under 0.5	15.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.20	—	79%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.65	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+1.79u	+11% ROI