Match Celtic vs ST Mirren April 11, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.76 — +14.4% better than the market.

Celtic arrive with strong home momentum, boasting a solid attacking edge against ST Mirren's defense. Their recent form and superior overall quality suggest control over the match tempo at Celtic Park. Expect a compact defensive block from ST Mirren, but Celtic's pressing and set-piece threat could unlock chances.

Home advantage with a clear quality gap
Strong attacking vs weaker away defense
Recent form favors Celtic's consistency

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.76 ✓ Cashed

AI 65% Implied 57% +0.76u

+76%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

CEL 4-2-3-1 · MIR 3-4-1-2

CEL · 4-2-3-1 3-4-1-2 · MIR

21 Oxlade-Chamberlain

11 Čvančara

📊 Statistics

CEL 1 – 0 MIR

56%

Possession (%)

44%

0.92

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.28

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

91%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Celtic beat ST Mirren 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 0.92 to 0.28. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 3.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.81 units (Brier 0.155).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.10	—	55%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.76	—	65%	Cashed	+0.76	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.75	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.15	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.90	—	44%	Cashed	+1.90	Cashed
Under 1.5	6.50	—	25%	Cashed	+5.50	Cashed
Under 0.5	19.00	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.09	—	93%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Home Win	1.33	—	76%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.10	—	76%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.47	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	6.00	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	91%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.15	—	75%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	3.50	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	10.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	6.80	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.81u	+5% ROI