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Home World UEFA Europa League Genk — Malmo FF

Match Genk vs Malmo FF January 29, 2026 — Result and Stats

Genk
Genk
Home · last 5 W W D W L
Kick-off
Thu 29 Jan · 20:00
2:1
Full-time
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
L L L L L Away · last 5
Cegeka Arena · Genk Referee Horatiu Fesnic, Romania
Miss
Draw
Draw
AI 25% · book 5.11
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 62% · book 1.40
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 14% · book 9.40
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
3.16 – 0.54
Δ +2.62
Possession
63% – 37%
AI accuracy
8 / 13
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
Genk vs Malmo FF leans strongly toward the home side. Genk look far more stable in how they build attacks and, crucially, they’ve shown they can turn pressure into goals more consistently than Malmo lately. Malmo arrive in poor form and have struggled to create clean chances, which makes it hard to see them controlling long spells away from home. The most likely script is Genk pushing the game into Malmo’s half for extended periods, with Malmo relying on set pieces and isolated breaks. Goals should come, and Genk have the clearest path to the win.
P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

📊 Statistics

GEN 21 MAL
63%
Possession (%)
37%
3.16
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.54
24
Total Shots
8
9
Shots on Target
3
10
Shots off Target
4
18
Shots Inside Box
4
8
Corner Kicks
5
2
Offsides
1
7
Fouls
12
87%
Pass Accuracy (%)
78%
1
Yellow Cards
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
7

Match recap

Genk beat Malmo FF 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.16 to 0.54. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 24 shots to 8, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 5. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 13 graded markets, 8 landed and 5 missed, for a net -1.68 units (Brier 0.136).

Bet recap · markets settled

13 · 8 W · 5 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Draw 5.11 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.40 62% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Away Win 9.40 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.82 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.78 62% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
BTTS No 1.84 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.24 80% Cashed +0.24 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.05 94% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.08 87% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.17 62% Cashed +0.17 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.45 60% Cashed +0.45 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.21 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.15 40% Cashed +1.15 Cashed
Total · 13 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 5 L −1.68u −13% ROI