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Home › World › UEFA Europa League › Aston Villa — Red Bull Salzburg

Predictions by Market: Aston Villa vs Red Bull Salzburg

Europe   /   UEFA Europa League Value pick inside
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Home · last 5 W W L W W
Kick-off
Thu 29 Jan · 20:00
3:2
Full-time
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
W L L W L Away · last 5
Villa Park · Birmingham Referee Rohit Saggi, Norway

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · AST
59%
Best 1.37
Draw
20%
Best 5.24
Away Win · SAL
20%
Best 7.38
Value pick
Draw
@ 5.13
Fair odds
4.92
book 5.13 · +4.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 20% · EV +4.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (59%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win
Probability 20.4%
Odds 6.81
Show model details
Implied probability 14.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 59.3%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 20.3%
Odds 5.13
Show model details
Implied probability 19.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 67%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality High
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 45.7%
Odds 2.70
Show model details
Implied probability 37%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 33%
Odds 2.29
Show model details
Implied probability 43.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 15%
Odds 19.50
Show model details
Implied probability 5.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 26.2%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 54.3%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 85%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 73.8%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Value pick
Probability 52.1%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 47.9%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 59.3%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 20.4%
Odds 4.85
Show model details
Implied probability 20.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 40.7%
Odds 2.89
Show model details
Implied probability 34.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 79.6%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
AST – SAL @ 5.13
+4.3%
Edge
Forecast →