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Home › World › UEFA Europa League › Fenerbahçe — Aston Villa

Predictions by Market: Fenerbahçe vs Aston Villa

Europe   /   UEFA Europa League Value pick inside
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
Home · last 5 W L D L W
Kick-off
Thu 22 Jan · 17:45
0:1
Full-time
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
W W L W W Away · last 5
Referee Luís Godinho, Portugal

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · FEN
40%
Best 2.39
Draw
30%
Best 3.48
Away Win · AST
30%
Best 2.80
Value pick
Draw
@ 3.68
Fair odds
3.33
book 3.68 · +10.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 30% · EV +10.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (40%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 40%
Odds 2.64
Show model details
Implied probability 37.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 30%
Odds 3.68
Show model details
Implied probability 27.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 30%
Odds 2.74
Show model details
Implied probability 36.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 6 markets
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 55%
Odds 1.81
Show model details
Implied probability 55.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 94%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 34%
Odds 2.88
Show model details
Implied probability 34.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 45%
Odds 2.16
Show model details
Implied probability 46.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 66%
Odds 1.45
Show model details
Implied probability 69%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 76%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality High
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 42%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 58%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Medium
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 40%
Odds 1.96
Show model details
Implied probability 51%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 30%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 70%
Odds 1.51
Show model details
Implied probability 66.2%
Bet quality High
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 60%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
FEN – AST @ 3.68
+10.0%
Edge
Forecast →