Match Feyenoord vs Sturm Graz January 22, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.76 — +14.0% better than the market.

Feyenoord should control this game at De Kuip through territory and pressure, even if their recent run has been patchy. Sturm Graz can be competitive in spells, but they tend to struggle when forced to defend deep for long periods, and their attacking output usually depends on moments rather than sustained dominance. The most likely script is Feyenoord on the front foot, with Sturm trying to survive the waves and nick chances on transitions. That points to a home-leaning 1X2 profile, with the draw and the away upset still live if Feyenoord’s finishing isn’t sharp. Goal markets lean toward a match with goals, but not necessarily a shootout.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.76 ✓ Cashed

AI 65% Implied 57% +0.76u

+76%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

FEY 4-2-3-1 · STU 4-4-2

FEY · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · STU

9 Ueda

📊 Statistics

FEY 3 – 0 STU

60%

Possession (%)

40%

1.32

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.10

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

75%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Feyenoord beat Sturm Graz 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 60% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.32 to 0.10. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 4, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 2. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.32 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 14 graded markets, 8 landed and 6 missed, for a net -2.51 units (Brier 0.142).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

14 · 8 W · 6 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.76	—	65%	Cashed	+0.76	Cashed
Away Win	7.26	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.96	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.20	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.75	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.30	—	45%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.03	—	95%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.15	—	82%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.67	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.14	—	80%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.50	—	58%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Home Win	1.46	—	55%	Cashed	+0.46	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.25	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.15	—	55%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
Total · 14 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 6 L	−2.51u	−18% ROI