Match FC Porto vs Malmo FF December 11, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

FC Porto vs Malmo FF looks like a classic one-sided European night at Estádio do Dragão. The Portuguese champions are in excellent form at home, combining a strong defensive record with steady chance creation both domestically and in Europe. Malmo arrive on a poor run, usually allowing more shots and clear chances than they produce, especially away from home. Over ninety minutes Porto should control possession, push the visitors deep and create the bulk of the scoring opportunities. A comfortable home win is the most realistic scenario, with Porto likely to score two or three times while keeping Malmo to very little in attack.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

POR 4-3-3 · MAL 4-3-3

POR · 4-3-3 4-3-3 · MAL

17 Sainz

📊 Statistics

POR 2 – 1 MAL

59%

Possession (%)

41%

2.67

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.55

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

77%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

FC Porto beat Malmo FF 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 59% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.67 to 0.55. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 6, 11 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 0. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 9 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.70 units (Brier 0.100).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.43	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.30	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	7.50	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.65	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.55	—	67%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
Home Win	1.26	—	80%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.05	—	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.04	—	95%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Under 0.5	17.50	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	16.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	4.68	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.21	—	79%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.68	—	55%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.47	—	36%	Cashed	+1.47	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.62	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.04	—	80%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
AH Away 0	7.20	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.70u	−34% ROI