Match Sturm Graz vs FK Crvena Zvezda December 11, 2025 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Thu 11 Dec · 17:45
0:1
Full-time
Merkur Arena · Graz
Referee Damian Sylwestrzak, Poland
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 43% · book 2.42
✓
Miss
Under 0.5
Under 0.5
AI 7% · book 17.00
✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 40% · book 2.66
✓
xG (open play)
1.50 – 1.58
Δ −0.08
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
Sturm Graz welcome Crvena Zvezda to Merkur-Arena in a match where the Austrian side are solid at home but the visitors look slightly sharper in recent European performances. Sturm score freely in their domestic league but leave a lot of space at the back, while Crvena Zvezda create chances both home and away and have enough quality to avoid a heavy defeat even on the road. We can expect an open game with goals at both ends, where the away side’s positive handicaps look very attractive from a betting perspective. Backing Crvena Zvezda with a head start on the handicap, combined with cautious plays on low goal lines and ‘both teams not to score’, offers an interesting risk–reward profile for this fixture.
P
Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
⛀ Lineups
STU 4-1-3-2 · CRV 4-2-3-1
📊 Statistics
STU 0
– 1 CRV
1.50
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
1.58
81%
Pass Accuracy (%)
73%
Match recap
FK Crvena Zvezda won 1–0 away at Sturm Graz. At half-time it was 0–0.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 59% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 81% of their passes. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.38 units (Brier 0.250).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
17 · 8 W · 9 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| Under 2.5 |
2.42 |
— |
43% |
Cashed |
+1.42 |
Cashed
|
| Under 0.5 |
17.00 |
— |
7% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS No |
2.66 |
— |
40% |
Cashed |
+1.66 |
Cashed
|
| Away Win |
2.42 |
— |
43% |
Cashed |
+1.42 |
Cashed
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.60 |
— |
65% |
Cashed |
+0.60 |
Cashed
|
| Under 1.5 |
5.00 |
— |
20% |
Cashed |
+4.00 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance X2 |
1.45 |
— |
68% |
Cashed |
+0.45 |
Cashed
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.04 |
— |
93% |
Cashed |
+0.04 |
Cashed
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.19 |
— |
80% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.66 |
— |
57% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Home Win |
2.98 |
— |
32% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Draw |
3.76 |
— |
25% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.64 |
— |
57% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.53 |
— |
60% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 3.5 |
2.50 |
— |
35% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Away 0 |
1.79 |
— |
43% |
Cashed |
+0.79 |
Cashed
|
| AH Home 0 |
2.19 |
— |
32% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Total · 17 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
8 W · 9 L |
+1.38u |
+8% ROI |
