Ludogorets beat Celta Vigo 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.77 to 2.07. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 7, 6 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 1. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +4.43 units (Brier 0.255).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 2.07 | — | 54% | Cashed | +1.07 | Cashed |
| Over 0.5 | 1.07 | — | 90% | Cashed | +0.07 | Cashed |
| Double Chance X2 | 1.21 | — | 74% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 1.33 | — | 76% | Cashed | +0.33 | Cashed |
| Under 3.5 | 1.33 | — | 67% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 2.5 | 1.88 | — | 46% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 1.97 | — | 54% | Cashed | +0.97 | Cashed |
| Double Chance 1X | 2.20 | — | 50% | Cashed | +1.20 | Cashed |
| BTTS No | 1.91 | — | 46% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 1.80 | — | 50% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away 0 | 1.29 | — | 50% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 3.5 | 3.75 | — | 33% | Cashed | +2.75 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 3.79 | — | 26% | Cashed | +2.79 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 5.25 | — | 26% | Cashed | +4.25 | Cashed |
| Under 1.5 | 3.50 | — | 24% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 3.84 | — | 24% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 0.5 | 10.50 | — | 10% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 17 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 8 W · 9 L | +4.43u | +26% ROI |
