FC Porto beat Nice 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.50 to 0.91. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.50 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.94 units (Brier 0.077).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 | 14.20 | — | 10% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS No | 1.79 | — | 60% | Cashed | +0.79 | Cashed |
| Away Win | 8.50 | — | 12% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Home Win | 1.45 | — | 70% | Cashed | +0.45 | Cashed |
| Over 2.5 | 1.82 | — | 55% | Cashed | +0.82 | Cashed |
| Over 1.5 | 1.25 | — | 80% | Cashed | +0.25 | Cashed |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.12 | — | 88% | Cashed | +0.12 | Cashed |
| Under 3.5 | 1.44 | — | 68% | Cashed | +0.44 | Cashed |
| Over 3.5 | 3.05 | — | 32% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home 0 | 1.14 | — | 85% | Cashed | +0.14 | Cashed |
| Under 2.5 | 2.14 | — | 45% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 0.5 | 1.05 | — | 90% | Cashed | +0.05 | Cashed |
| Double Chance X2 | 3.14 | — | 30% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away 0 | 6.05 | — | 15% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 5.07 | — | 18% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 2.09 | — | 40% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 1.5 | 4.20 | — | 20% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 17 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 8 W · 9 L | −5.94u | −35% ROI |
