Lille beat Dinamo Zagreb 4–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 65% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 90% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.96 to 0.09. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 3, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 18 graded markets, 9 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.25 units (Brier 0.160).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 1.81 | — | 60% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away 0 | 4.75 | — | 28% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 6.13 | — | 21% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance X2 | 2.67 | — | 46% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 4.66 | — | 25% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 0.5 | 15.50 | — | 7% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 1.5 | 4.70 | — | 22% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 1.50 | — | 68% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 2.5 | 2.29 | — | 44% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 1.73 | — | 56% | Cashed | +0.73 | Cashed |
| Over 0.5 | 1.04 | — | 93% | Cashed | +0.04 | Cashed |
| Over 1.5 | 1.23 | — | 78% | Cashed | +0.23 | Cashed |
| AH Home +1 | 1.04 | — | 90% | Cashed | +0.04 | Cashed |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.16 | — | 79% | Cashed | +0.16 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 1.21 | — | 72% | Cashed | +0.21 | Cashed |
| Over 3.5 | 2.70 | — | 32% | Cashed | +1.70 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 1.58 | — | 54% | Cashed | +0.58 | Cashed |
| BTTS No | 2.06 | — | 40% | Cashed | +1.06 | Cashed |
| Total · 18 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 9 W · 9 L | −4.25u | −24% ROI |
