Post-match · 90 sec read
Braga’s home control and chance volume give them the edge, but Genk’s away breaks keep this live. Expect an open game with 2–3 goals and chances both ways.
📊 Statistics
BRA 3 – 4 GEN63%
Possession (%)
37%
2.59
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
1.09
20
Total Shots
9
6
Shots on Target
8
7
Shots off Target
0
12
Shots Inside Box
7
9
Corner Kicks
2
1
Offsides
1
6
Fouls
11
89%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
2
Yellow Cards
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Match recap
Genk won 4–3 away at SC Braga. At half-time it was 1–1.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 63% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.59 to 1.09. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 9, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 2. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.09 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 20 graded markets, 8 landed and 12 missed, for a net -0.34 units (Brier 0.274).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
20 · 8 W · 12 L| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 1.76 | — | 57% | Cashed | +0.76 | Cashed |
| Under 0.5 | 14.50 | — | 10% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 1.5 | 4.40 | — | 25% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 5.06 | — | 21% | Cashed | +4.06 | Cashed |
| Draw | 4.24 | — | 24% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance X2 | 2.26 | — | 45% | Cashed | +1.26 | Cashed |
| Over 2.5 | 1.79 | — | 56% | Cashed | +0.79 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 1.72 | — | 55% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.22 | — | 79% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 1.45 | — | 66% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 3.5 | 2.88 | — | 34% | Cashed | +1.88 | Cashed |
| Under 2.5 | 2.19 | — | 44% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 1.25 | — | 75% | Cashed | +0.25 | Cashed |
| Over 0.5 | 1.05 | — | 90% | Cashed | +0.05 | Cashed |
| BTTS No | 2.15 | — | 43% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home +1 | 1.06 | — | 85% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home -2 | 4.55 | — | 18% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away 0 | 3.61 | — | 21% | Cashed | +2.61 | Cashed |
| AH Home -1 | 2.25 | — | 33% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home 0 | 1.29 | — | 55% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 20 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 8 W · 12 L | −0.34u | −2% ROI |