FC Basel 1893 beat FCSB 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 84% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.75 to 1.18. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 25 shots to 14, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 5. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 18 graded markets, 9 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.13 units (Brier 0.136).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 1.64 | — | 60% | Cashed | +0.64 | Cashed |
| Draw | 4.34 | — | 23% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 5.73 | — | 17% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 1.81 | — | 54% | Cashed | +0.81 | Cashed |
| BTTS No | 2.06 | — | 46% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 0.5 | 1.05 | — | 93% | Cashed | +0.05 | Cashed |
| Under 0.5 | 14.50 | — | 7% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 1.24 | — | 78% | Cashed | +0.24 | Cashed |
| Under 1.5 | 4.33 | — | 22% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 1.78 | — | 55% | Cashed | +0.78 | Cashed |
| Under 2.5 | 2.21 | — | 45% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 3.5 | 2.90 | — | 34% | Cashed | +1.90 | Cashed |
| Under 3.5 | 1.48 | — | 66% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.18 | — | 83% | Cashed | +0.18 | Cashed |
| Double Chance X2 | 2.42 | — | 40% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home 0 | 1.23 | — | 60% | Cashed | +0.23 | Cashed |
| AH Away 0 | 4.26 | — | 17% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home +1 | 1.04 | — | 83% | Cashed | +0.04 | Cashed |
| Total · 18 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 9 W · 9 L | −4.13u | −23% ROI |
