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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › 1. FC Köln — FC Augsburg

1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
Home · last 5 D L D L L
Kick-off
Sat 18 Oct · 13:30
1:1
Full-time
FC Augsburg
FC Augsburg
W D W W L Away · last 5
Referee Timo Gerach, Germany
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 56% · book 2.07 ✗
Hit
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 79% · book 1.35 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 42% · book 2.45 ✓
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
0.58 – 0.99
Δ −0.41
Possession
56% – 44%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.35 — +6.9% better than the market.

Preview & Verdict

1.FC Köln hosts FC Augsburg in a match where the home side is slightly favored. Köln's estimated probability of winning is 55.82% against the odds of 2.07, suggesting a solid chance for a home victory. Meanwhile, the Double Chance 1X market offers a safer option with a 79.17% estimated probability and odds of 1.35. Goals are expected, with Over 2.5 Goals having a 58.11% estimated probability at odds of 1.67. Both teams scoring is also likely, with a 60.31% chance at odds of 1.57.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X @ 1.35 ✓ Cashed
AI 79% Implied 74% +0.35u
+35%
ROI on stake

Lineups

KOL 3-4-2-1 · AUG 3-4-2-1
KOL · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · AUG 1 Schwäbe 2 Schmied 4 Hübers 3 Heintz 28 Sebulonsen 18 Jóhannesson 6 Martel 32 Lund 7 Waldschmidt 16 Kamiński 29 Thielmann 1 Dahmen 17 Jakić 5 Matsima 40 Banks 30 Kade 19 Fellhauer 4 Massengo 13 Giannoulis 32 Rieder ⚽ 26 Saad 36 Kömür
Subs used · KOL
59' El Mala ↑ · Heintz ↓
59' Bulter ↑ · Waldschmidt ↓
74' Kainz ↑ · Thielmann ↓
74' Huseinbasic ↑ · Sebulonsen ↓
74' Ache ↑ · Lund ↓
Subs used · AUG
46' Claude-Maurice ↑ · Saad ↓
77' Tietz ↑ · Komur ↓
85' Essende ↑ · Rieder ↓
85' Zesiger ↑ · Banks ↓
90+6' Wolf ↑ · Kade ↓

Statistics

KOL 1 – 1 AUG
56%
Possession (%)
44%
0.58
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.99
9
Total Shots
9
2
Shots on Target
3
5
Shots off Target
4
4
Shots Inside Box
1
5
Corner Kicks
2
6
Offsides
0
10
Fouls
17
78%
Pass Accuracy (%)
73%
2
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

16 · 1 – 1
7'
▮
Anton Kade
Yellow Card
20'
▮
Kristijan Jakić
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
46'
⇄
A. Claude-Maurice ↓ · E. Saad ↑
Substitution 1
54'
⚽
F. Rieder (P)
Penalty · 0–1
S. El Mala ↓ · D. Heintz ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
59'
M. Bulter ↓ · L. Waldschmidt ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
59'
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
Yellow Card
▮
61'
Jan Thielmann
Yellow Card
▮
64'
F. Kainz ↓ · J. Thielmann ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
D. Huseinbasic ↓ · S. Sebulonsen ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
74'
R. Ache ↓ · K. Lund ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
74'
S. El Mala
Assist · M. Bulter · 1–1
⚽
76'
77'
⇄
P. Tietz ↓ · M. Komur ↑
Substitution 2
85'
⇄
S. Essende ↓ · F. Rieder ↑
Substitution 3
85'
⇄
C. Zesiger ↓ · N. Banks ↑
Substitution 4
90+6'
⇄
M. Wolf ↓ · A. Kade ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Rieder (54'), S. El Mala (76').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.94 units (Brier 0.175).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.07 — 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.35 — 79% Cashed +0.35 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.45 — 42% Cashed +1.45 Cashed
BTTS No 2.53 — 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.57 — 60% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.67 — 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.00 — 23% Cashed +3.00 Cashed
Away Win 3.60 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 — 96% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Under 0.5 17.50 — 4% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.20 — 81% Cashed +0.20 Cashed
Under 1.5 5.00 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.60 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.57 — 64% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.88 — 44% Cashed +0.88 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.52 — 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.70 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.94u −11% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance 1X
KOL – AUG @ 1.35
+6.9%
Edge
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