Match TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK February 21, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.61 — +12.0% better than the market.

Bundesliga Clash: TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK

TSV Hartberg holds a clear quality edge and a notable home advantage, suggesting they can control the game tempo. Their solid defensive setup contrasts with Grazer AK's less robust backline, giving Hartberg a pressing edge. Both sides show similar recent form, but Hartberg's home momentum and defensive resilience hint at a tight, low-scoring affair. Expect a compact block and cautious build-up from the visitors, with Hartberg likely to capitalize on set-piece opportunities.

Home defensive solidity vs away attacking pressure
Balanced recent form with slight home momentum
Likely cautious pace favoring under 2.5 goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.61 ✓ Cashed

AI 70% Implied 62% +0.61u

+61%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HAR 5-3-2 · GRA 3-1-4-2

HAR · 5-3-2 3-1-4-2 · GRA

7 Havel

📊 Statistics

HAR 1 – 0 GRA

44%

Possession (%)

56%

1.20

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.41

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

73%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

TSV Hartberg beat Grazer AK 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.20 to 0.41. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 11 shots to 6, 5 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.74 units (Brier 0.132).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	1.87	—	62%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.61	—	70%	Cashed	+0.61	Cashed
Home Win	2.44	—	49%	Cashed	+1.44	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.74	—	49%	Cashed	+0.74	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.60	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.04	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.37	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.20	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.42	—	77%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Under 1.5	2.88	—	43%	Cashed	+1.88	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.00	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.21	—	88%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.45	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.20	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.30	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.09	—	79%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.44	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.74u	−16% ROI