Match Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg November 9, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.28 — +14.7% better than the market.

Red Bull Salzburg enter Merkur-Arena with a clear quality edge and a stronger recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand. Their attacking threat is likely to test Sturm Graz's defense, which has shown vulnerability. However, Sturm Graz's home momentum and compact block could limit Salzburg's chances, making this a tactical battle.

Salzburg's offensive edge against Graz's defense
Home side's recent winning streak
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.28 ✓ Cashed

AI 50% Implied 44% +1.28u

+128%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

STU 4-3-1-2 · SAL 4-2-3-1

STU · 4-3-1-2 4-2-3-1 · SAL

38 Grgić

📊 Statistics

STU 1 – 1 SAL

45%

Possession (%)

55%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

73%

Pass Accuracy (%)

74%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 11, 5 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.58 units (Brier 0.161).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.45	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.70	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.28	—	50%	Cashed	+1.28	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.07	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.65	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.45	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.56	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.84	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.52	—	71%	Cashed	+0.52	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.57	—	68%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.80	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.50	—	56%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.55	—	51%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
Under 0.5	15.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	92%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Draw	3.75	—	24%	Cashed	+2.75	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.21	—	74%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.58u	−15% ROI

Match Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg November 9, 2025 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.28 — +14.7% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled