P
Prognosist
P
Home › England › Premier League › Manchester City — Aston Villa

Predictions by Market: Manchester City vs Aston Villa

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Manchester City
Manchester City
Home · last 5 D W W D L
Kick-off
Sun 24 May · 15:00
1:2
Full-time
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
L L D W W Away · last 5
Etihad Stadium · Manchester Referee A. Madley

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · MCI
75%
Best 1.38
Draw
17%
Best 6.00
Away Win · AST
8%
Best 9.50
Value pick
Draw
@ 6.30
Fair odds
6.00
book 6.30 · +5.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 17% · EV +5.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (75%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Draw
Probability 16.7%
Odds 6.30
Show model details
Implied probability 15.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 75.3%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Away Win
Probability 8%
Odds 9.50
Show model details
Implied probability 10.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 6 markets
✓ Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 54.4%
Odds 2.12
Show model details
Implied probability 47.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 45.6%
Odds 1.84
Show model details
Implied probability 54.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 33.3%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 14.6%
Odds 8.00
Show model details
Implied probability 12.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5 Best in group
Probability 85.4%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 41.4%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 75.3%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 8%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 92%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 24.7%
Odds 3.60
Show model details
Implied probability 27.8%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
MCI – AST @ 6.30
+5.0%
Edge
Forecast →