Burnley vs Wolves — Preview, Lineups & AI Prediction

AI preview · 90 sec read

AI sees no standout edge in this market — odds and probabilities line up.

Burnley hold a clear quality edge and a solid defensive setup that could frustrate Wolves, who have struggled to convert chances recently. The home side's compact block and home momentum contrast with Wolves' patchy form and defensive vulnerabilities. Expect a cautious tempo with under 2.5 goals likely as both teams prioritize structure over flair.

Burnley's defensive resilience at Turf Moor
Wolves' inconsistent attack facing a tough defense
Low-scoring trend supported by recent form and odds

⚖ Market · Fair (consensus)

4 bookmakers consensus · 15-min refresh

Market	Best bookmaker	Fair (consensus)	AI prob.	Edge
Under 3.5	1.44	1.43	76%	+9.8%	Top pick
Double Chance 1X	1.45	1.40	74%	+7.9%	Watch
Draw	3.66	3.55	25%	−6.8%	Pass
Over 0.5	1.04	1.03	87%	−9.2%	Pass
Double Chance X2	1.62	1.57	51%	−17.3%	Pass
Over 1.5	1.22	1.20	68%	−17.3%	Pass
Over 2.5	1.79	1.73	45%	−19.8%	Pass
BTTS Yes	1.62	1.57	49%	−20.5%	Pass
Away Win	2.98	2.90	26%	−23.8%	Pass
Over 3.5	2.80	2.62	24%	−33.5%	Pass

Under 3.5

book 1.44 · fair 1.43 · 76%

+9.8%

Top pick

Double Chance 1X

book 1.45 · fair 1.40 · 74%

+7.9%

Watch

Draw

book 3.66 · fair 3.55 · 25%

−6.8%

Pass

Over 0.5

book 1.04 · fair 1.03 · 87%

−9.2%

Pass

Double Chance X2

book 1.62 · fair 1.57 · 51%

−17.3%

Pass

Over 1.5

book 1.22 · fair 1.20 · 68%

−17.3%

Pass

Over 2.5

book 1.79 · fair 1.73 · 45%

−19.8%

Pass

BTTS Yes

book 1.62 · fair 1.57 · 49%

−20.5%

Pass

Away Win

book 2.98 · fair 2.90 · 26%

−23.8%

Pass

Over 3.5

book 2.80 · fair 2.62 · 24%

−33.5%

Pass

Best bookmaker — highest offer across all bookmakers. Fair (consensus) — median of all bookmakers with the bookmaker margin removed. AI prob. — AI's estimated probability of the outcome. Edge — how much the best bookmaker beats the AI-implied price (positive = value). ★ Top pick — highest-EV value bet; Watch — positive edge below the value threshold; Pass — no edge.

⚔ Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match

Goals Scored

0.70

Goals Conceded

1.81

0.83

Expected Goals (xG)

0.89

2.97

Shots on Target

3.22

3.54

Corners

3.30

41.54

Possession (%)

43.08

111.37

Efficiency index

80.17

59.44

Adjusted index

48.03

Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date

OFF · home

DEF · home

OFF · away

DEF · away

Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers

Home Win Draw Away Win

🎯 Scenario insights

①

Burnley wins when scoring first

①

Wolves wins when scoring first

67%

⚽

Burnley BTTS rate · last 10

50%

⚽

Wolves BTTS rate · last 10

40%

↑

Burnley Over 2.5 · last 10

50%

↑

Wolves Over 2.5 · last 10

50%

↩

Burnley comeback rate · last 10

↩

Wolves comeback rate · last 10

🔥 Goal timing

Burnley · last 10 at home

0–15 13%

16–30 13%

31–45 13%

46–60 37%

61–75 13%

76–90 13%

Wolves · last 10 away

0–15 0%

16–30 0%

31–45 40%

46–60 20%

61–75 20%

76–90 20%

Second-half-heavy — most goals come after the break.

Top scorers

Z. Flemming

BUR · Attacker

10 G · 0.52 g/90