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Home › England › Premier League › Burnley — Wolves

Burnley vs Wolves 1:1: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Burnley
Burnley
Home · last 5 L L D L D
Kick-off
Sun 24 May · 15:00
1:1
Full-time
Wolves
Wolves
L D L D D Away · last 5
Turf Moor · Burnley Referee A. Kitchen
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 55% · book 2.18 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 51% · book 2.38 ✗
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 49% · book 2.46 ✗
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.06 – 2.05
Δ −0.99
Possession
70% – 30%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.44 — +9.8% better than the market.

Burnley hold a clear quality edge and a solid defensive setup that could frustrate Wolves, who have struggled to convert chances recently. The home side's compact block and home momentum contrast with Wolves' patchy form and defensive vulnerabilities. Expect a cautious tempo with under 2.5 goals likely as both teams prioritize structure over flair.

  • Burnley's defensive resilience at Turf Moor
  • Wolves' inconsistent attack facing a tough defense
  • Low-scoring trend supported by recent form and odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.44 ✓ Cashed
AI 76% Implied 69% +0.44u
+44%
ROI on stake

Lineups

BUR 4-2-3-1 · WOL 3-4-2-1
BUR · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · WOL 13 Weiss 2 Walker 6 Tuanzebe 12 Humphreys 23 Pires 16 Luís 8 Ugochukwu 17 Tchaouna 28 Mejbri 11 Anthony 19 Flemming ⚽ 1 Sá 15 Mosquera 4 Bueno 37 Krejčí 21 Gomes 47 Gomes 7 André 6 Wolfe 11 Hee-chan 36 Mané 9 Armstrong ⚽
Subs used · BUR
66' Amdouni ↑ · Mejbri ↓
75' Ward-Prowse ↑ · Ugochukwu ↓
75' Edwards ↑ · Tchaouna ↓
84' Barnes ↑ · Flemming ↓
84' Bruun Larsen ↑ · Anthony ↓
Subs used · WOL
66' Toti ↑ · Krejci ↓
66' Arokodare ↑ · Gomes ↓
74' Bueno ↑ · M. Wolfe ↓
74' Abbey ↑ · Armstrong ↓
82' Lima ↑ · Gomes ↓

Statistics

BUR 1 – 1 WOL
70%
Possession (%)
30%
1.06
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.05
16
Total Shots
16
8
Shots on Target
4
2
Shots off Target
5
7
Shots Inside Box
10
7
Corner Kicks
7
0
Offsides
3
10
Fouls
11
87%
Pass Accuracy (%)
74%
2
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
7

Match events

16 · 1 – 1
5'
⚽
A. Armstrong (P)
Penalty · 0–1
41'
▮
Hwang Hee-Chan
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 1
Z. Flemming
Assist · L. Tchaouna · 1–1
⚽
47'
H. Mejbri
Yellow Card
▮
45+9'
66'
⇄
Toti ↓ · L. Krejci ↑
Substitution 1
Z. Amdouni ↓ · H. Mejbri ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
66'
66'
⇄
T. Arokodare ↓ · A. Gomes ↑
Substitution 2
74'
⇄
H. Bueno ↓ · D. M. Wolfe ↑
Substitution 3
74'
⇄
J. Abbey ↓ · A. Armstrong ↑
Substitution 4
J. Ward-Prowse ↓ · L. Ugochukwu ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
75'
M. Edwards ↓ · L. Tchaouna ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
75'
82'
⇄
Pedro Lima ↓ · R. Gomes ↑
Substitution 5
A. Barnes ↓ · Z. Flemming ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
84'
J. Bruun Larsen ↓ · J. Anthony ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
A. Barnes
Yellow Card
▮
90+4'
90+4'
▮
Y. Mosquera
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Burnley and Wolves drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 70% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.05 to 1.06. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Armstrong (5'), Z. Flemming (47').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.77 units (Brier 0.161).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.18 2.00 55% Cashed +1.18 Cashed
BTTS No 2.38 2.19 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.46 2.48 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.80 1.82 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.62 1.54 51% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.79 1.83 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.62 1.66 49% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.80 3.00 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.17 2.07 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.44 1.35 76% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.45 1.40 74% Cashed +0.45 Cashed
Under 0.5 13.40 10.99 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.33 4.00 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.98 2.80 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.66 3.34 25% Cashed +2.66 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.04 1.02 87% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.22 1.23 68% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.77u −16% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
BUR – WOL @ 1.44
+9.8%
Edge
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