Match Dender vs Genk February 1, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.00 — +14.6% better than the market.

Genk enters this clash with a clear quality edge and a more consistent recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Their stronger offense should test Dender’s defense, which has struggled to contain attacks. Meanwhile, Dender’s home momentum and compact block could limit Genk’s chances, hinting at a tactical battle with moderate goal potential.

Genk’s offensive pressure vs Dender’s defensive resilience
Home side’s recent mixed form but solid home edge
Moderate pace expected from balanced goal odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.00 ✗ Lost

AI 57% Implied 50% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

DEN 3-4-1-2 · GEN 3-4-3

DEN · 3-4-1-2 3-4-3 · GEN

77 Nsimba

📊 Statistics

DEN 1 – 2 GEN

51%

Possession (%)

49%

2.75

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.11

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Genk won 2–1 away at Dender. At half-time it was 0–2.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.75 to 1.11. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 8, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.80 units (Brier 0.134).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.00	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.00	—	57%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
BTTS No	2.10	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.96	—	43%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.91	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.76	—	47%	Cashed	+0.76	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.81	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.39	—	77%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.29	—	82%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.44	—	57%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Under 0.5	11.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	90%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	3.60	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.30	—	68%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.86	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.25	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.95	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.80u	−28% ROI