Match Dender vs Club Brugge KV December 14, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.60 — +14.4% better than the market.

Club Brugge KV arrives with a clear quality edge and stronger recent form despite Dender's resilience at home. The visitors' attacking threat contrasts with Dender's defensive struggles, suggesting Brugge can break through a compact block. However, Dender's home momentum and moderate pace hint at a controlled game rather than a goal-fest.

Brugge's superior offensive firepower vs Dender's defense
Home side's recent steady form and set-piece threat
Moderate tempo favors tactical discipline over wild open play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.60 ✗ Lost

AI 72% Implied 63% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

DEN 5-3-2 · CLU 4-2-3-1

DEN · 5-3-2 4-2-3-1 · CLU

77 Nsimba

📊 Statistics

DEN 1 – 5 CLU

38%

Possession (%)

62%

1.07

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

3.06

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

73%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Club Brugge KV won 5–1 away at Dender. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 62% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.06 to 1.07. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 6, 9 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 3 to 0. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 5 from 3.06 expected goals.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.85 units (Brier 0.154).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.60	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.47	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.24	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.71	—	48%	Cashed	+0.71	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	2.48	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.63	—	50%	Cashed	+0.63	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.60	—	28%	Cashed	+1.60	Cashed
Away Win	1.57	—	67%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.00	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	17.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.19	—	88%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.24	—	67%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Draw	4.51	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	92%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.18	—	73%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Home Win	6.00	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	4.18	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.85u	−29% ROI