Match Leeds vs Burnley May 1, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.25 — +13.7% better than the market.

Leeds enter this clash with clear home momentum, showing stronger recent form and a notable quality edge over Burnley. Their offensive threat is likely to test Burnley's defense, which has struggled lately. Expect a controlled tempo with Leeds leveraging their compact block and set-piece threat to press their advantage.

Home side's solid defensive shape limits Burnley's chances
Leeds' recent form suggests growing confidence
Burnley's offensive struggles may keep scoring low

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.25 ✗ Lost

AI 51% Implied 44% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LEE 3-5-2 · BUR 5-4-1

LEE · 3-5-2 5-4-1 · BUR

19 Okafor ⚽

Subs used · LEE

65'

Nmecha ↑ ·

Okafor ↓

72'

Aaronson ↑ ·

Stach ↓

72'

Longstaff ↑ ·

Tanaka ↓

90+4'

James ↑ ·

Bogle ↓

90+4'

Gnonto ↑ ·

Calvert-Lewin ↓

Subs used · BUR

54'

Mejbri ↑ ·

Laurent ↓

65'

Pires ↑ ·

Hartman ↓

65'

Florentino ↑ ·

Ward-Prowse ↓

76'

Amdouni ↑ ·

Humphreys ↓

76'

Broja ↑ ·

Flemming ↓

📊 Statistics

LEE 3 – 1 BUR

48%

Possession (%)

52%

1.65

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.53

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

21 · 3 – 1

A. Stach

Assist · J. Bijol · 1–0

⚽

P. Struijk

Yellow Card

▮

27'

35'

▮

B. Humphreys

Yellow Card

37'

▮

L. Tchaouna

Yellow Card

J. Rodon

Yellow Card

▮

40'

Half-time · 1 – 0

D. Calvert-Lewin

Yellow Card

▮

48'

N. Okafor

Assist · J. Bogle · 2–0

⚽

52'

54'

⇄

H. Mejbri ↓ · J. Laurent ↑

Substitution 1

D. Calvert-Lewin

3–0

⚽

56'

L. Nmecha ↓ · N. Okafor ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

65'

⇄

Lucas Pires ↓ · Q. Hartman ↑

Substitution 2

65'

⇄

Florentino ↓ · J. Ward-Prowse ↑

Substitution 3

71'

⚽

L. Tchaouna

Assist · J. Anthony · 3–1

B. Aaronson ↓ · A. Stach ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

72'

S. Longstaff ↓ · A. Tanaka ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

72'

E. Ampadu

Yellow Card

▮

75'

76'

⇄

Z. Amdouni ↓ · B. Humphreys ↑

Substitution 4

76'

⇄

A. Broja ↓ · Z. Flemming ↑

Substitution 5

88'

▮

H. Mejbri

Yellow Card

D. James ↓ · J. Bogle ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+4'

W. Gnonto ↓ · D. Calvert-Lewin ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+4'

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Leeds beat Burnley 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.65 to 0.53. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 9, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 0. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Stach (8'), N. Okafor (52'), D. Calvert-Lewin (56'), L. Tchaouna (71').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.56 units (Brier 0.154).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.25	2.30	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.91	1.87	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.95	1.88	46%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.75	1.67	49%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.80	2.60	28%	Cashed	+1.80	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.44	1.50	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.46	1.36	71%	Cashed	+0.46	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.33	4.50	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.10	1.08	91%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.93	3.05	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.12	1.10	71%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Under 0.5	14.50	14.93	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.87	5.00	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	1.03	92%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.22	1.20	73%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
Away Win	7.90	8.77	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	6.00	6.49	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.56u	−27% ROI